XMR slides as both momentum and trend indicators point to persistent weakness: weekly analysis

Traders Union
All News
Crypto
Monero falls 4.10% this week

Highlights

Monero fell 4.1% over the past week to $528.55 and now trades below key short-term resistance.
Price is consolidating between significant support at $521.51 and resistance at $551.3, with a mixed trend structure.
Momentum readings are mixed, showing seller control and short-term exhaustion, with price expected to trade from $497.7 to $559.39 next week.

Protocol upgrades and regulatory pressures shape challenging sentiment this week

Monero introduced the v3.0 release of Full-Chain Membership Proofs (FCMP++) and launched the CARROT beta stressnet, with the fork taking place on a test network at block 3102800 on October 5, 2026, according to FXStreet and Cryptoticker.io. The FCMP++ update remains unscheduled for the XMR mainnet for now, so there is no required action for holders. Meanwhile, the rollout of native XMR network support in the THORWallet app, as reported by Cointelegraph, and persistent exchange restrictions in Europe under upcoming anti-money-laundering rules keep the trading environment challenging.

Seller dominance holds as mixed momentum and technical barriers contain price

The daily chart shows a trending structure, with volatility over the past week at 11.34% and the move characterized as a sustained move lower with a firm trend. Momentum readings are split—RSI remains neutral at 45.94, while both CCI and Stochastic RSI are oversold, reinforcing seller control but also suggesting short-term exhaustion. With the MA-50 at $521.51 providing nearby support and $551.3 as resistance, plus the Ichimoku Kijun at $559.32 further overhead, price action is pinned within a pronounced barrier zone.

Sideways-to-lower bias expected as support and resistance tighten next week

Next week, Monero is expected to trade between $497.7 and $559.39. There is a 57% probability of an increase and a 43% chance of a decrease. The base case calls for sideways-to-lower movement within this range, bounded by $521.51 support and $551.3 resistance. A clear break above $551.3 could target the upper end of the range around $559.39, while sustained weakness below $521.51 would bring a test of $497.7 into play.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Monero (XMR) navigating a challenging week as regulatory headwinds in Europe and significant network updates shape sentiment. The implementation of v3.0 Full-Chain Membership Proofs and progress on the CARROT beta stressnet reflect ongoing innovation, while new native XMR integration in the THORWallet app underscores strong adoption momentum despite persistent exchange restrictions. Technically, sellers dominated this week, but with RSI neutral at 45.94 and both CCI and Stochastic RSI oversold, risk/reward skews increasingly positive as price approaches strong daily support at $521.51. In the coming week, constructive structure remains possible within $497.7 to $559.39, and any break above $551.3 could rapidly shift the tone bullish. "With innovation accelerating and price nearing support, I see a clear opportunity for bulls to reassert control if $521.51 holds—further growth is very much on the radar."

Earlier, analysts noted that privacy remains a central issue for Monero and similar cryptocurrencies, given ongoing regulatory pressures and the evolution of privacy technology in the digital asset space. The current environment underscores this narrative, as Monero faces both technical updates and persistent exchange restrictions, with traders advised to monitor the $521.51 support and $551.3 resistance levels for signs of a decisive break in direction.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.