BTC/USD faces renewed downside risks as Treasury yields and ETF outflows weigh on sentiment
BTC/USD is trading around $83,300–83,400 on October 12, attempting to stabilize after a sharp decline to $80,300–80,500 late last week. On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin remains above the long-term moving average around $81,500–82,000 but has yet to establish a firm position above the short-term moving averages clustered near $83,800–84,200.
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After several failed attempts to break above $86,000–87,000, the market has begun to form lower highs, which indicates weakening buying momentum. However, the price structure still resembles a deep correction within a medium-term uptrend rather than a definitive trend reversal.⠀Another notable development is the shift in speculative positioning. Over the past week, Bitcoin open interest declined by approximately 6%, while open interest across the broader cryptocurrency market increased by 15%. This suggests a reduction in leverage specifically in BTC and a partial shift of speculative activity toward altcoins.⠀
Treasury yields and inflation expectations limit recovery potential
⠀One of the main factors limiting Bitcoin's recovery remains the U.S. Treasury market. After reaching 5.35% last week, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries retreated from its highs but remains around 5.3%, while the 30-year yield stays above 5.6%. This increases the attractiveness of bonds relative to non-yielding assets and raises borrowing costs for speculative investors.⠀Additional uncertainty comes from the upcoming release of September U.S. CPI data on October 14. Headline inflation is expected to accelerate to 3.7% year over year, primarily due to higher energy prices. Following the Fed's September rate hike to 3.75–4.00%, the market currently assigns an approximately 18–19% probability to another increase on October 28, while further tightening in December is already partially priced in.⠀
Institutional demand remains weak despite modest ETF inflows⠀The situation with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs does not yet indicate a recovery in sustained institutional demand. After net outflows of $484.9 million on October 7 and another $244.1 million on October 8, Friday's session ended with a modest inflow of $21.1 million. Of this amount, BlackRock's IBIT attracted $22.4 million, while Fidelity's FBTC recorded an outflow of $3.6 million.⠀As a result, total net outflows for the week of October 5–9 reached approximately $678.9 million, while the month-to-date figure stood at around $386 million in net outflows. Friday's modest positive result currently looks more like stabilization after substantial redemptions than confirmation of a new accumulation phase.⠀
Key technical levels define the near-term outlook
⠀Thus, the risks of a break below the $83,200–83,000 support area and a decline toward $82,700–82,400 prevail. A break above the $83,600–83,800 resistance area would open the way for a rise toward $84,000–84,300. In the near term, as I noted in the article BTC/USD struggles to regain momentum as ETF outflows weigh on market, BTC may remain within its current broad trading range.
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