Jupiter price prediction: Potential for further weakness while downside risk remains high

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Jupiter slides 8.07% to $0.3441 today

Highlights

Roughly 1,103,720,890 JUP tokens are staked and 175 million retired since February 17, 2025, making about 38.5% of supply illiquid.
Jupiter Lend now surpasses Kamino in loan deposits on Solana, indicating growing protocol adoption and increased user activity.
JUP trades below short- and mid-term averages with indicators showing strong sell signals; expected price range is $0.3272 to $0.3655.

Supply tightening as staking and buybacks deepen despite selling pressure

Jupiter's token ecosystem has seen 1,103,720,890 JUP tokens staked, representing about one-third of its circulating supply and substantially reducing tokens available for active trading. According to available data, Jupiter's protocol buyback program has further retired 175 million JUP since February 17, 2025, resulting in approximately 38.5% of the token supply being rendered illiquid. Growth in Jupiter Lend on Solana, where it recently surpassed Kamino in loan deposits, reflects widening protocol adoption and user engagement. These factors together point to a tightening of circulating supply and deepening ecosystem activity, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Bearish momentum confirmed as oversold signals and volatility rise

JUP trades below the MA-20 and MA-50 levels on the hourly chart, while remaining above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun sits at $0.3688, acting as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators such as MACD and ADX are both negative and confirm a strong sell environment. RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all flag oversold conditions, while Bull/Bear Power highlights seller dominance in intraday action. The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is aligned with this intraday downtrend, and volatility remains elevated after the most recent 8.07% drop and downward price gap.

Downside risks persist as range-bound trade remains likely

Over the next two to three trading days, JUP is expected to consolidate within a volatility band spanning $0.3272 to $0.3655. A sharp move higher is considered very unlikely given current negative momentum, with downside risk remaining pronounced. Price stability would require a sustained hold above the lower end of this range, while a clear upside scenario would only open if the token breaks above the $0.3688 resistance level. The base case outlook favors range-bound trading within these levels, with a bias toward further weakness unless oversold conditions trigger a short-term rebound.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees growing fundamental strength behind Jupiter’s ecosystem despite the token’s recent price decline. The high amount of staked and bought-back JUP has tightened active supply, while rising DeFi activity signals user confidence. However, technical conditions remain weak in the short term, keeping downside risk in focus. He expects range-bound trading with potential for stability if fundamentals continue to improve. "With long-term adoption trends and strong token locking, I remain constructive, but would watch for a shift in sentiment before expecting a breakout."

Earlier, analysts noted that Jupiter's expanding DeFi footprint and aggressive token buybacks had established a foundation for bullish momentum. The current article signals a shift to more cautious conditions, highlighting sustained supply tightening but emphasizing that downside risk prevails unless a break above immediate resistance triggers a reversal.

Source of Data: JUP Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.