Standard Chartered delays $2 trillion stablecoin market forecast to 2030

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Standard Chartered delays stablecoin forecast

Highlights

Standard Chartered delays its $2 trillion stablecoin market forecast from 2028 to 2030, maintaining its long-term projection despite current supply flatlining at around $309 billion.
Stablecoin onchain transfer value hit a record $19 trillion in May 2024 and average monthly velocity doubled to 30 times this year versus 15 times in 2025, despite sluggish supply growth.
Regulatory adoption of frameworks like the U.S. GENIUS Act is the main risk to stablecoin growth, with increased competition likely from Open USD, M^0, and the planned A+ network.

Forecast revision and market activity trends

As reported by The Block, Standard Chartered now expects the stablecoin market to reach $2 trillion by 2030 instead of 2028, while keeping its long-term market size estimate unchanged. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank's global head of digital assets research, says stablecoin supply has held in a $300 billion to $320 billion range over the past 12 months and currently stands at about $309 billion.

Kendrick says the supply slowdown reflects weak crypto market conditions rather than a structural change in demand. He notes that earlier periods of flat or falling supply were followed by renewed expansion once broader crypto markets recovered.

At the same time, transaction use continues to rise even as issuance growth slows. Raw onchain transfer value hit a monthly record of $19 trillion in May, and monthly volume averages just under $10 trillion so far this year, compared with $4 trillion in 2025. Average monthly stablecoin velocity also doubles to around 30 times this year from 15 times in 2025, indicating that existing supply is being used more intensively.

Regulatory risks and competitive pressure

Kendrick expects the strongest competition in stablecoin payments and transactions to emerge in developed markets. He identifies Open USD, stablecoin infrastructure provider M^0, and A+, a planned network for banks to issue a shared stablecoin while retaining income from reserve assets, as potential challengers.

He says regulation remains the main risk to the $2 trillion forecast, with the outlook depending heavily on whether other countries adopt frameworks similar to the U.S. GENIUS Act and how those rules shape stablecoin usage. Kendrick adds that the main threat to USDT's emerging-market dominance would come if global regulators closely follow the U.S. approach, potentially opening the market to more bank-backed and multi-issuer stablecoins after the law takes effect in January 2027.

In our earlier article on anti-scam measures in the Philippines’ digital payments ecosystem, we covered how industry groups are urging companies to deploy AI-driven fraud detection and strengthen coordination with regulators as e-wallet usage expands. We also noted rising cross-border transfer activity linked to fraud and highlighted why faster information sharing between financial institutions and authorities is becoming critical to protect users and payment networks.

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