Aptos holds $0.7119 support amid consistent negative technical signals

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Aptos drops 7.76% to $0.74 today

Highlights

Aptos net supply increased by about 1.4 million APT over 30 days as staking rewards outpaced token burns.
Aptos Labs made Block-STM v2 the mainnet default and introduced an Encrypted Mempool to strengthen transaction privacy.
APT/USD trades below short and medium-term moving averages, staying above long-term support with a projected $0.7119 to $0.7859 trading range and sustained bearish pressure.

Supply expansion pressures price as upgrades target activity and privacy

Aptos recorded a net supply increase of approximately 1.4 million tokens over the last 30 days, as the effect of burning 174,195 APT was outweighed by around 1.5 million newly distributed through monthly staking rewards, according to Tokenpost. This shift in circulating supply may reinforce existing downward price dynamics by boosting potential liquidity in the market. Alongside these supply developments, Aptos Labs announced on October 15 that Block-STM v2 is now the default upgrade on the mainnet, potentially affecting transaction processing and user activity, while the launch of an Encrypted Mempool feature aims to fortify on-chain privacy, as reported by Digitaltoday Co.

Downside momentum persists as oversold signals and resistance align

Technically, APT is positioned below both its MA-20 and MA-50, while remaining just above the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun level at $0.7915 defines immediate resistance. Support is found at $0.7119, with upper resistance marked at $0.7859. MACD and ADX convey a pronounced sell bias, while intraday momentum is confirmed by firm negative signals from Bull/Bear Power and the Awesome Oscillator. Oscillators, including a 31.47 RSI, oversold Stochastic RSI, and oversold CCI, indicate that the asset is approaching short-term exhaustion on the downside, but there is no clear sign of reversal yet.

Further declines favored as consolidation dominates near-term risk

Over the next two to three sessions, APT is likely to fluctuate within a $0.7119 to $0.7859 volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a sustained bounce is very low in the short term, while the odds of further declines remain high. The baseline scenario envisions consolidation inside this corridor. A shift to a bullish outlook would require a breakout above immediate resistance, with a bearish scenario unfolding if the price breaches the $0.7119 support zone.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees a constructive setup for Aptos despite the recent supply-driven dip. He notes that increased token rewards create short-term headwinds, but deeper protocol upgrades and privacy improvements may reinforce long-term confidence. Price action remains capped below key resistance, yet market structure is stabilizing near oversold territory. "If Aptos holds above $0.7119 and network innovation continues, I see solid potential for demand to recover and drive a new bullish impulse."

Earlier, analysts noted that Aptos faced sustained downside momentum and lingering selling pressure, with technical oversold conditions yet no clear signals of bullish reversal. The latest developments reaffirm the dominance of short-term negative bias, making the $0.7119 support level a critical threshold for traders monitoring potential further declines or a reversal attempt.

Source of Data: APT Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.