Why is Raydium price up 10.2% today?

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Raydium surges 10.22% today on buybacks

Highlights

Raydium trading fees reached $57.1 million in Q3 2026, tripling from the previous quarter following increased launchpad activity.
The protocol allocated more than $6.2 million annualized for RAY token buybacks, with over 30% of circulating supply repurchased to date.
RAY/USD is trading in a bullish medium- and long-term trend, with short-term selling pressure and an expected five-day range of $1.3008 to $2.1632.

Buybacks escalate amid fee surge but reliance on StonkFun adds risk

Raydium, a decentralized exchange protocol on Solana, reported Q3 2026 trading fees of $57.1 million, tripling from the previous quarter largely due to significant activity from its StonkFun launchpad partner. The protocol recorded $9.39 million in revenue for Q3, allocating 12% of fees, or more than $6.2 million annualized, for RAY token buybacks, resulting in the repurchase of 4.58 million RAY during the quarter. By August 31, the treasury held $97.1 million with 37.3 million RAY staked, and more than 30% of the circulating supply repurchased to date, though there is noted uncertainty regarding Q4 growth due to the reliance on StonkFun-driven activity.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that Raydium's recent rebound is largely built on StonkFun partnership hype and aggressive token buybacks. He sees the asset still trading below its 20-day moving average, which signals persistent short-term weakness. Kharitonov points out concerns over sustainability, given heavy reliance on a single partner for fee growth. He stresses that levels remain at risk if seller dominance persists, with limited technical evidence for a turnaround. "Token repurchases do not resolve the underlying dependency risks — and without broader demand, price stability appears fragile," he warns.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, highlights Raydium’s exceptional Q3 performance and robust revenue trends. He maintains that the buyback strategy and treasury growth confirm a healthy foundation for further appreciation. Karapetjanc remains optimistic about resilient fundamentals, with over 30% of the circulating supply already repurchased. The bullish structure remains intact, and he views the current setup as an opportunity. "Strong institutional flows and continued innovation suggest more upside is coming for RAY," he affirms.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, sees mixed sentiment driving RAY price action with short-term oversold signals. He notes technical exhaustion is building, but intraday volatility offers tactical setups for active traders. Turakhiya believes sideways to mildly bullish positioning remains favored within projected bands. "With momentum indicators diverging, range-bound trades and quick reversals may prove profitable in the coming sessions," he suggests.

Short-term selling builds as oversold signals suggest downside exhaustion

RAY/USD is trading below its 20-day moving average (MA-20) at $2.0679, but above the 50-day (MA-50) at $1.6927 and the 200-day (MA-200) at $0.934. This pattern indicates ongoing short-term selling pressure, paired with broadly constructive medium- and long-term trends. The current range is contained by a resistance ceiling at $1.964 and a support floor at $1.8008. Momentum is mixed: the MACD is neutral, ADX signals a buy and supportive trend strength, and the RSI at 41.1287, CCI at -115.0336, and Stochastic RSI at 0 all highlight oversold conditions, suggesting potential for technical exhaustion on the downside. Bull/Bear Power at -0.1302 and a neutral Awesome Oscillator point to sellers dominating intraday, though the oversold readings hint at possible stabilization. An upside gap near $0.0606 (3.48%) and intraday volatility amplitude of 9.06% illustrate renewed strength toward session highs, even as momentum indicators diverge.

Earlier, analysts noted that Raydium was experiencing a shift toward bullish momentum driven by strong protocol revenue and substantial token buyback activity. The latest data on trading fees and treasury growth strengthens this narrative, but with short-term pressure and reliance on StonkFun evident, traders should watch for a decisive move above the current resistance ceiling to confirm a continued upward trend.

Source of Data: RAY Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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