Bitcoin price prediction: BTC faces strong resistance as on-chain flows show selling risk

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Sholanke Dele

29.07.2025

Bitcoin price prediction: BTC faces strong resistance as on-chain flows show selling risk — Bitcoin stalls as market cap outpaces stablecoin supply

Bitcoin’s short-term structure continues to compress under the weight of weakening liquidity and rising whale inflows.

Since rejecting the $120,000 psychological level last week, the flagship asset has struggled to make meaningful progress.

- Bitcoin rises 0.6%, but stalls near $119,500 resistance inside descending channel

- BTC whale deposits hit $1.2B as retail flows stay weak amid long liquidations

- BTC stablecoin Supply Ratio signals liquidity exhaustion and limits fresh spot demand

Over the last fifteen days, the daily opening and closing prices have largely been locked in a tight range. However, zooming in, the 4-hour chart paints a more active picture. Lower highs and lower lows suggest short-term sellers are still in control, even as prices stay above the 50 and 100 EMA levels.

Bitcoin price dynamic (June - July 2025). Source: Tradingview

As of the early London session today, July 29, Bitcoin is trading near $118,700, up 0.6% so far. Price is still holding above the 50 and 100 EMAs on the 4-hour timeframe, showing a degree of support from buyers. At the same time, RSI on the same chart has remained above 50, suggesting underlying bullish pressure even as the price pattern leans bearish. Traders are watching the top of the descending channel near $119,500 for a possible breakout attempt. A rejection at that point could bring another selloff and put pressure on the 4-hour EMA support levels.

Bitcoin SSR at 18.8 signals rally may fade unless liquidity expands

On-chain data adds context to the current price consolidation. Whale inflows on Binance surged sharply on July 25, as the exchange recorded $1.2 billion in 30-day cumulative deposits. CoinGlass reported around $141 million in long liquidations from July 24 to July 25, revealing the weight of institutional selling pressure. Although retail investors are also transferring funds to exchanges, their activity is still minor compared to that of whales. This skew in deposit size suggests the recent pressure is largely top-heavy.

A deeper driver may be found in the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio, which rose significantly during the recent rally. The ratio, now at 18.8, suggests Bitcoin’s market cap is growing faster than the available stablecoin supply. This restricts the buying capacity for fresh spot demand. While this ratio supports the idea that recent gains were driven by capital rotation into BTC, its elevated reading now points to liquidity exhaustion. Unless stablecoin reserves grow meaningfully to support new buying, price may stay boxed in.

Until then, breakout attempts could continue to stall near the top of the channel, while RSI support and exchange flows shape the short-term direction. A meaningful drop in SSR would signal returning liquidity and provide fresh room for upside expansion.

Bitcoin rebounded as Asian and European traders bought the dip ahead of the $120,000 mark. Bitcoin formed a golden cross while RSI climbed above neutral, indicating bullish momentum.

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