BTC/USD struggles below $79,000 despite renewed inflows to Binance

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Bitcoin recovery faces persistent selling pressure

Binance sees capital return after massive withdrawals

One of the most significant developments on November 3 was a reversal in capital flows on Binance following massive withdrawals triggered by the largest security incident in the exchange's history. According to DefiLlama data, net inflows to the platform exceeded $1.8 billion over the past 24 hours, indicating that some users have returned after the initial panic.

Meanwhile, some updates indicate a further increase in positive net flows, although the figures depend significantly on the time of measurement. After withdrawals resumed on November 1, Binance processed $4.65 billion in withdrawal requests within the first nine and a half hours, while deposits totaled approximately $1.01 billion over the same period. As a result, the initial net outflow reached $3.64 billion and subsequently increased to approximately $4.72 billion, according to the exchange.

The mass withdrawals were triggered by an attack on October 29, during which hackers stole approximately $6.3 billion in cryptocurrency. Binance stated that it would cover the losses itself and had already recovered around 95% of the affected assets. The return of funds is an important sign that the crisis of confidence is easing, although it is still too early to speak of a complete normalization of the situation: cumulative net flows over the past seven days remain deeply negative, while withdrawal operations are being restored in stages. Moreover, cryptocurrency inflows to the exchange do not necessarily indicate additional demand for Bitcoin, as the funds may be used for trading, margin collateral, or subsequent selling.

Institutional selling and derivatives activity limit recovery

Continued capital outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs remain one of the main factors preventing a recovery in the cryptocurrency. At the close of trading on November 2, total net outflows from the funds amounted to approximately $398.6 million, with the bulk coming from BlackRock's IBIT, which recorded withdrawals of $405.3 million. A modest inflow of $6.7 million into Fidelity's FBTC was insufficient to offset selling in the largest fund.

On the previous trading day, October 30, spot Bitcoin ETFs lost approximately $643 million, bringing total outflows over the last two trading sessions to more than $1 billion. This trend is particularly significant against the backdrop of recovering deposits on Binance: the return of liquidity to the largest cryptocurrency exchange has not yet been accompanied by a comparable increase in institutional demand for BTC. The structure of the derivatives market is also raising additional concerns.

Over the past 24 hours, total open interest in cryptocurrency futures declined by approximately 1.6% to $134.9 billion, while trading volumes increased by more than 50% to $168 billion. At the same time, liquidations rose to approximately $383 million, while market sell orders continued to outweigh buy orders. This indicates heightened speculative activity and a reduction in some open positions, but does not yet suggest the emergence of sustained buying demand.

$76,300 support remains critical for Bitcoin

Thus, despite the current rebound from support around $76,300, BTC remains vulnerable, with a high risk of breaking below this support and declining toward at least $75,000. Only a move above $79,000, as I stated in BTC/USD remains vulnerable below $80,000 as exchange security fears deepen, could ease bearish pressure and improve the chances of a further recovery.

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