Hyperliquid price forecast: Further downside risk with sellers in control

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Hyperliquid drops 7.36% to $77.34 today

Highlights

Hyperliquid Strategies reported net income of $620.6 million for the quarter, mainly from $803 million in unrealized gains on HYPE token holdings.
The firm raised $911 million in equity capital and spent $785 million to acquire 9.1 million HYPE tokens, temporarily reducing circulating supply.
HYPE trades below key short-term moving averages with bearish momentum; near-term range expected is $73.78 to $80.45 with a high probability of further downside.

Financial gains boost reported strength as liquidity impact remains muted

Hyperliquid Strategies reported net income of $620.6 million for the quarter ended September 30, 2026, largely attributed to $803 million in unrealized gains on its HYPE token holdings, according to X. This substantial paper profit increases the firm's reported financial strength but does not directly affect liquidity or market demand in the near term. During the same quarter, Hyperliquid Strategies raised $911 million in equity capital and deployed $785 million to accumulate 9.1 million HYPE tokens, as Prnewswire noted, which temporarily reduced circulating supply. Other notable developments include the filing for US futures commission merchant registration and a pending team token vesting of 180,000 HYPE tokens, well below previous schedules, but price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Intraday seller dominance deepens as technical resistance holds

HYPE/USD trades below the MA-20 at $78.62 and MA-50 at $82.16 on the hourly chart, while remaining above the MA-200 at $67.65. The Ichimoku Kijun at $80.16 now acts as immediate resistance. MACD and ADX both indicate a strong sell, while Bull/Bear Power stands at -0.52, reflecting notable intraday seller dominance. RSI, Stoch RSI, CCI, and the Awesome Oscillator are neutral, suggesting no imminent reversal signals from momentum oscillators.

Downside risk elevated amid consolidation within defined range

Over the next two to three trading days, HYPE/USD is expected to trade within a range of $73.78 to $80.45, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. There is a high probability of further downside, with a very low likelihood of an upward breakout. Consolidation within this band is the baseline scenario, while any sustained move above the Ichimoku Kijun at $80.16 would be required to shift the short-term outlook toward bullishness. A breach below the lower band would signal renewed selling momentum.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Hyperliquid’s strong quarterly net income and large treasury accumulation as positive structural signals. He notes that new capital inflows and limited upcoming token unlocks reinforce a constructive fundamental picture, even as price remains under short-term pressure. Market sentiment will stay cautious until HYPE recovers $80.16, but the outlook is resilient given the robust institutional backdrop. "If buying interest returns near $74, structural strength suggests HYPE could resume its uptrend once resistance is cleared."

Previously it was reported that Hyperliquid Strategies sought to expand U.S. market access and compliance by filing for futures commission merchant status and posting strong quarterly results fueled by unrealized gains in HYPE token holdings. The current technical setup and capital deployment confirm ongoing strategic positioning, but with HYPE/USD facing renewed downside risk, a decisive move above the Ichimoku Kijun at $80.16 remains the key threshold to monitor for any shift in the short-term outlook.

Source of Data: HYPE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.