Hedera weekly forecast: Struggles near support as institutional activity offsets weak fee revenues

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Hedera falls 4.36% this week

Highlights

Hedera trades at $0.069 after a 4.36% weekly decline, remaining below major moving averages with persistent downside pressure.
Technical signals including MACD and ADX indicate a strong bearish trend, with volatility at 11.26% for the week.
Hedera is expected to move between $0.0587 and $0.0729, with high probability of further declines unless price clears $0.0741 resistance.

Upgrade cancellation amplifies uncertainty as institutional flows and regulatory ties persist

Hedera cancelled its v0.79 testnet upgrade, which was expected to introduce new features to the mainnet, creating some market uncertainty according to openPR.com and Cryptoticker.io. Meanwhile, HBAR took part in regulatory discussions with the CFTC Super Intelligence panel and was invited to meetings with the EU Financial Services Commission and DTCC, reflecting ongoing institutional engagement. Despite steady institutional demand, evidenced by a $2.73 million net inflow into Canary's HBAR ETF, analysis suggests network fee revenues remain low and there is not yet clear accumulation by enterprise clients.

Momentum turns firmly bearish as MACD, ADX, and volatility spike over the week

The daily chart signals a firm, trending move lower, highlighted by a sustained move lower with a firm trend and 11.26% weekly volatility. MACD and ADX both indicate sell conditions, while level-based momentum readings such as RSI at 32.877 and CCI at -97.1053 remain neutral. Support rests at $0.0666, resistance at $0.0741, and the Ichimoku Kijun at $0.0806 acts as an additional barrier overhead.

Downside risk dominates next week as support and range floor come into view

Over the coming week, Hedera is expected to trade between $0.0587 and $0.0729. There is a very high probability (more than 80%) of a further decrease and a very low probability (less than 20%) of an increase. The base case remains continued downside risk within this range, with any move above $0.0741 potentially invalidating the bearish view. A drop below $0.0666 would open up further losses toward the range floor.

Parshwa Turakhiya, analyst, notes that Hedera (HBAR) spent the week defending $0.069, weighed down by a 4% drop and uncertainty after the cancelled v0.79 testnet upgrade. He observes that steady institutional flows, including a $2.73 million net inflow into Canary's HBAR ETF, are countered by ongoing doubts around network growth and muted fee revenues. Daily chart momentum is negative, with both MACD and ADX in sell mode and key support at $0.0666 under threat. Over the coming week, Turakhiya expects price action between $0.0587 and $0.0729, with a strong bias for further downside unless bulls reclaim $0.0741. "With sentiment shaky and technical selling pressure building, any break below $0.0666 could accelerate losses — but I'll watch for a quick sentiment shift if support attracts buyers."

Previously it was reported that Hedera faced persistent bearish momentum, with downside risks dominating market direction due to technical weakness and delayed network upgrades. The latest analysis reinforces this outlook, highlighting a potential shift to the next lower trading band if the $0.0666 support is decisively breached in the coming days.

Source of Data: HBAR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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