-0.17% for Bitcoin as $78,042 resistance comes into focus

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Bitcoin drops 0.17% to $75,975 today

Highlights

The U.S. Treasury barred MEXC Global from the U.S. financial system due to transactions involving Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
U.S. financial institutions will be prohibited from processing crypto transfers with MEXC after 30 days, creating regulatory uncertainty and restricting access.
BTC/USD faces ongoing short- and medium-term selling pressure with a forecasted range of $73,154 to $78,796 as momentum indicators show more downside risk.

Liquidity risks rise as US bans MEXC Global over sanctions

The U.S. Treasury’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network ordered a cutoff of virtual currency exchanger MEXC Global from the U.S. financial system, citing transactions tied to sanctions evasion involving Iran, North Korea, and Russia, according to Newscord. This action will bar U.S. financial institutions from processing cryptocurrency transfers with MEXC after a 30-day notice period, restricting U.S. market access to this platform. The move introduces regulatory uncertainty and could dampen liquidity for Bitcoin as market participants assess the impact on transaction flows.

Bearish momentum consolidates while key supports hold above MA-200

On the technical front, BTC is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50 on the 4-hour chart while holding above the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is set by the Ichimoku Kijun level at $78,042. Momentum indicators reveal a divergence: the MACD and ADX both signal a strong sell and confirm persistent bearish momentum, while the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral. Meanwhile, RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI are all in neutral zones and do not highlight any extreme market condition. Bull/Bear Power continues to print negative values, reflecting ongoing intraday seller control.

Downside bias persists as technicals favor further losses

In the short term, BTC is likely to oscillate within a range of $73,154 to $78,796. Current technicals and momentum indicators suggest that the probabilities are skewed towards further downside, with an estimated 35% chance of an upside move. Key scenarios include a continuation of sideways action within this corridor, a potential bullish breakout if resistance above $78,042 is cleared, or further losses should support near the lower band collapse.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees mounting regulatory uncertainty after the FinCEN action against MEXC Global. He believes this move limits U.S. access and could depress Bitcoin liquidity, while technical readings confirm persistent bearish momentum below key moving averages. Kharitonov remains focused on support near $73,154 and is skeptical of bullish scenarios until resistance above $78,042 is cleared. "Until Bitcoin reclaims higher ground and regulations stabilize, I prefer a defensive stance and expect choppy trading to persist."

Previously it was reported that Bitcoin was entering a consolidation phase, with technicals showing increased risk of downside within a defined trading range. The latest regulatory action against MEXC Global introduces fresh uncertainty to market liquidity, making the $73,154 support level a critical area for traders to monitor for potential volatility ahead.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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