Kaspa weekly forecast: Sellers dominate as price struggles near $0.0281 support

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Kaspa falls 11.96% this week

Highlights

Kaspa trades at $0.0288, dropping 11.96% for the week and closing near the bottom of its weekly range.
The asset sits well below key moving averages, with daily structure and indicator signals confirming a persistent bearish trend.
Expected 7-day range is $0.023 to $0.0312, with downside risk heightened if $0.0281 support breaks, resistance at $0.0326.

Supply limit progression and emission cut amplify network’s fifth anniversary impact

Kaspa's blockchain network celebrated its fifth anniversary on November 7, 2026, processing over 2.44 billion transactions while operating a blockDAG architecture, according to BSCN. By early November, approximately 96.85% of the projected maximum supply of 28.7 billion KAS had already been mined, highlighting accelerated progress toward the coin's supply limit, as CaptainAltcoin noted. On November 6, 2026, Kaspa's monthly block reward declined by 5.6% from 2.06 to 1.94 KAS per block due to its scheduled emission decrease, with network hashrate remaining steady, according to Cryptonews.net.

Negative momentum persists as oversold signals test key support

On the daily chart, a sharp move lower has unfolded without a sustained trend, as volatility spiked to 16.73%. MACD, ADX, and Bull/Bear Power all point to persistent downside momentum, with CCI and Stochastic RSI both in oversold territory—suggesting possible selling exhaustion even as the trend remains negative. The nearest support sits at $0.0281, while resistance is clustered at the $0.0326 level, where both the 200-day average and Ichimoku Kijun converge.

Further downside likely this week unless resistance at $0.0326 breaks

For the next 7 days, the expected range is $0.023 to $0.0312, with a very high probability of further downside and a very low probability of a rebound. The base case sees price consolidating or edging lower within this band. A break above $0.0326 would be needed to challenge resistance and reverse short-term sentiment. Conversely, a move below $0.0281 opens the door for further declines toward the lower bound of the forecast range. On the weekly chart the longer-term picture stays firmly negative.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, remains skeptical after Kaspa (KAS) dropped more than 10% this week to near $0.029. He sees mounting caution as the coin approaches its supply cap, with the recent fifth anniversary and block reward cut doing little to inspire confidence. Technical conditions remain negative: daily momentum indicators all point downward, while only oversold readings suggest possible exhaustion. For the week ahead, Dele expects Kaspa to stay within a $0.023 to $0.0312 range, with a strong downside bias unless price reclaims $0.0326 resistance. "As long as KAS stays below $0.0326 and momentum stays weak, I remain defensive and see little reason to expect a rebound this week."

Earlier, analysts noted that Kaspa was under sustained selling pressure with heightened volatility risk due to the high concentration of supply among major holders. The latest data reinforces this bearish outlook, highlighting that traders should focus on whether the $0.0281 support level can hold, as a break below it would increase the likelihood of further declines within the projected trading range.

Source of Data: KAS Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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