Hotter-than-expected U.S. October CPI inflation data keeps Bitcoin flat

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Bitcoin drops 0.95% on inflation fears

Highlights

October CPI inflation data exceeded expectations, increasing concerns about a possible Federal Reserve rate hike and tighter liquidity.
Federal Reserve officials indicated a potentially faster pace of rate hikes, deepening uncertainty in the cryptocurrency market.
BTC/USD trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages with strong selling pressure; forecast range is $67,478 to $77,728 and increased downside risk.

Fed rate hike signals drive cautious crypto sentiment after CPI beat

Hotter-than-expected U.S. Consumer Price Index inflation data for October has heightened market concerns over the likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike, increasing the perception of tighter liquidity conditions for digital assets, according to The Block. Both headline and core CPI readings surpassed market expectations, leading Federal Reserve officials to indicate a potentially accelerated pace of rate hikes, as reported by TradingKey. These developments have contributed to renewed uncertainty and cautious sentiment in the cryptocurrency market.

Sell momentum dominates as BTC breaches medium-term supports

On the H4 timeframe, BTC is trading below both the MA-20 and MA-50, reflecting pronounced short- and medium-term seller pressure. Meanwhile, the price holds above the MA-200 on the daily chart, with the Ichimoku Kijun at $74,488 acting as immediate resistance. Momentum signals remain negative, as both MACD and ADX are aligned with sell conditions. RSI and Stoch RSI lie in neutral territories, while CCI has entered the oversold range, indicating potential for a short-term rebound though not confirming it. Bull/Bear Power points to dominant seller activity and the Awesome Oscillator further underscores prevailing bearish momentum.

Downside risk prevails as short-term range caps BTC upside

Over the next few days, BTC is expected to trade within a volatility band between $67,478 and $77,728. The short-term scenario anticipates consolidation within this range, with a high probability of further downside and limited chances for an upward move. A break above $74,488 would open the path toward the upper boundary of the range, while a dip below $67,478 could signal renewed weakness.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Bitcoin’s current pullback as driven by hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation data and the resulting shift in Federal Reserve policy expectations. He notes that although short- and medium-term pressures are elevated, longer-term technical foundations remain intact. Karapetjanc believes liquidity challenges may persist in the near term, but constructive sentiment could return if immediate resistance is cleared. "A decisive move above $74,488 could quickly shift market sentiment and reopen the path toward the top of the current range."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent regulatory pressures and ETF outflows were the primary forces behind Bitcoin’s downside bias. The current environment now adds macroeconomic risk from rising U.S. inflation and tightened Federal Reserve policy, making a sustained move above $74,488 a pivotal level for gauging near-term bullish recovery.

Source of Data: BTC Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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