BTC/USD faces further downside risk as ETF outflows deepen market weakness

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Bitcoin struggles despite stronger equity markets

Bitcoin diverges from the Nasdaq recovery

Notably, a divergence has emerged between cryptocurrency and stock markets: Nasdaq 100 futures gained around 1.7% today following strong earnings from CoreWeave, while Bitcoin remained near $74,000. This suggests that the current decline can no longer be explained solely by a general deterioration in risk appetite. Investors are reducing their exposure to cryptocurrencies despite attempts at a recovery in U.S. technology stocks.

U.S. inflation reinforces expectations of tighter Fed policy

The main macroeconomic factor behind the selling pressure remains the U.S. consumer inflation data released on November 10, which exceeded expectations and significantly altered the outlook for interest rates. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, October CPI rose 0.4% month over month, compared with expectations of 0.3%, while core inflation reached 0.3%, also exceeding the consensus estimate of 0.2%.

Although headline consumer price growth slowed from September's 0.6%, persistent core inflation heightened concerns about the need for further monetary tightening by the Fed. Following the release, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield briefly reached 5%, while the probability of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting increased to approximately 90%, according to CME FedWatch.

For Bitcoin, this means that unfavorable conditions persist, as high government bond yields reduce the appeal of assets that do not generate interest income, while tighter financial conditions limit the availability of speculative capital.

Institutional selling raises the stakes for key support levels

A considerably more concerning factor is the continued outflow of capital from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, which indicates weakening institutional demand. According to SoSoValue, the funds recorded net outflows of approximately $95 million on November 10, extending their negative streak to four consecutive trading sessions. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for approximately $78 million of the outflows, while cumulative net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs since the beginning of November reached around $1.6 billion.

Although there are still no objective reasons for a Bitcoin crash, as long as the cryptocurrency trades below $75,000–76,000, the risk of a decline toward $70,000–65,000 remains high. A break above the current resistance near $74,100, as stated in BTC/USD remains under pressure near $74,000 as U.S. CPI approaches, would lead to a rise toward $74,750–75,000, where bears could become active again.

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