Solana struggle continues below 200-day average with sellers in control: weekly outlook

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Solana falls 10.51% this week

Highlights

Solana trades at $80.76, having declined 10.51% in the past week and now sits below all key moving averages.
Technical signals show strong selling momentum with both RSI and CCI in oversold territory, indicating potential for a technical rebound.
The price range for next week is projected at $72.26 to $86.16, with further declines likely unless resistance at $89 is cleared.

DTCC tokenization push and new partnerships lift solana’s institutional narrative

Solana's institutional appeal grew last week after the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC), a major post-trade infrastructure provider, announced plans to enable tokenization of DTC-custodied assets on the SOL blockchain by the second half of 2027, according to PR Newswire. This initiative may pave the way for increased settlement and liquidity for tokenized securities on the network, with regulatory structures requiring bank and financial firm involvement. Smaller partnerships also made headlines, such as Forward Industries joining forces with Groma to bring tokenized real estate assets to the platform, alongside Solana Company's Q3 2026 report showing revenue growth tied to institutional staking operations.

Oversold signals cluster as firm downside momentum drives technical structure

The daily chart signals a sustained move lower with a firm trend, pressed by strong selling momentum and volatility of 12.69%. Both RSI (22.23) and CCI (-143.84) are in oversold territory, while MACD remains negative, aligning with the overall selling pressure. Immediate support sits at $80.46 and resistance is defined by the 200-day MA at $89, with the Kijun line at $94.83 acting as additional upside resistance. This structure suggests selling has been decisive, but the cluster of oversold oscillator readings points to risk of a technical rebound even as the dominant bias stays negative.

Further weakness likely next week unless resistance at $89 is reclaimed

Next week, Solana is expected to trade between $72.26 and $86.16, with a very high probability (more than 80%) of further declines and a very low probability (less than 20%) of an increase. The base case is for continued pressure, holding below resistance at $89 and gravitating around current support at $80.46. A move above $89 would challenge the bearish outlook and open the door to recovery attempts toward the Kijun at $94.83. Slipping below $80.46 would likely accelerate declines toward the lower end of the expected range near $72.26.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, believes Solana remains in a strong position for institutional growth despite a sharp 10% decline over the past week. He sees major headlines like DTCC’s announcement to enable asset tokenization on the Solana blockchain and new real estate partnerships as signs of deepening mainstream adoption. While daily chart structure points to firm selling momentum and volatility at 12.69%, oversold RSI (22.23) and CCI (-143.84) highlight growing risk of a technical rebound as traders focus on support at $80.46. The analyst expects Solana to trade within $72.26 to $86.16 next week, with recovery attempts possible if resistance at $89 is broken. "With robust institutional news underpinning Solana’s future, I believe current weakness offers strategic opportunity for forward-looking investors as the path to mainstream adoption accelerates."

Earlier, analysts noted that Solana was facing sustained selling pressure despite solid ecosystem and revenue growth. The current outlook corroborates this bearish momentum, with technical signals remaining negative and traders advised to monitor the $80.46 support level for indications of further downside risk.

Source of Data: SOL Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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