Monero price prediction: Downward move persists with strong seller pressure

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Monero drops 6.55% today on EU ban

Highlights

Regulation (EU) 2024/1624 will ban privacy coins like Monero from EU-regulated exchanges starting July 2027.
Restrictions on Monero access in key European markets are expected to reduce medium-term demand and liquidity.
XMR/USD faces strong bearish momentum with price projected to stay between $442.78 and $518.64, downside risk remains high.

EU privacy coin ban set to restrict Monero's market access

The most significant news affecting Monero comes from regulatory developments in the European Union. Regulation (EU) 2024/1624 was confirmed on November 14, 2026, and will prohibit privacy coins such as Monero from being offered by crypto-asset service providers or exchanges regulated within the EU beginning in July 2027, as reported by Thespotlite. This regulatory change is expected to significantly restrict Monero’s future access to key European markets, adversely impacting medium-term demand and sentiment. The anticipation of reduced liquidity and accessibility remains a central factor in shaping current market dynamics.

Bearish momentum persists as resistance holds and volatility rises

On the technical front, XMR/USD is trading below the MA-20 at $481.18 and the MA-50 at $502.61 on the H1 chart, while staying above the MA-200 at $439.37 on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is marked by the Ichimoku Kijun at $481.41. MACD signals strong sell, and ADX highlights persistent bearish momentum. Both RSI and CCI are neutral, though Stoch RSI is in the overbought zone, warning of a possible short-term correction; Bull/Bear Power at 3.17 indicates intraday buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator is neutral. The instrument is down 6.55% today and remains volatile, hovering near the daily range high alongside conflicting intraday sentiment and underlying bearish signals.

Further downside likely as breakout above resistance remains unlikely

In the next trading day, XMR is expected to fluctuate within the $442.78 to $518.64 band, reflecting typical volatility. The probability of upward movement is very low, with further downside considered highly likely, and a reversal scenario less probable under current technical conditions. The baseline expectation is for sideways trading within this corridor, with a bullish scenario requiring a clear breakout above resistance, and a bearish scenario potentially accelerating if support fails.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, analyst at Traders Union, sees regulatory risks beginning to dominate Monero’s outlook after the EU’s confirmation of a binding privacy coin ban. He believes that the expected restrictions on market access in Europe create persistent headwinds for medium-term demand and sentiment. Despite some intraday buyer support, technical signals are mostly bearish and reinforce the downside case. Immediate upside potential looks limited unless the price can clear key resistance. "I remain constructive only above established resistance — for now, the regulatory backdrop keeps any bullish scenario in check."

Earlier, analysts noted that Monero faced sustained downside risk amid persistent bearish momentum and tightening regulatory pressures in the EU. The current analysis reinforces this outlook, emphasizing that the confirmation of EU Regulation 2024/1624 and ongoing technical weakness warrant close monitoring of the $442.78 support level as a potential trigger for further downside.

Source of Data: XMR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.