Price prediction: Can Aave breakout continue? Uptrend tested near $254

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Aave rises 7.25% in volatile session

Highlights

Aave (AAVE) trades at $253.18, below its MA-20 ($271.87), MA-50 ($294.34), and just under MA-200 ($254.87), signaling multi-term technical weakness.
On October 10, 2025, Aave suffered a 64% flash crash and rapid 140% rebound following a $19–20 billion crypto liquidation triggered by Trump's China tariff announcement.
AAVE is expected to consolidate between $242.39–$249.89 over the next five trading days, with over 80% probability of a price increase indicated by weekly momentum.

Volatility surges amid liquidation cascade and persistent bearish sentiment

Aave’s native token faced a dramatic event during a flash crash on October 10, 2025, plunging 64% before swiftly rebounding 140% within hours, reflecting both the protocol's resilience and overall market volatility tied to a sudden $19–20 billion crypto liquidation. This downturn was linked to a tariff announcement by former US President Trump on China, triggering widespread liquidations across crypto assets. Recent sentiment remains bearish, with the Fear & Greed index at 24 and most indicators negative, while a new DeFi competitor, Mutuum Finance, is set to launch its testnet in Q4 2025.

Oversold signals clash with momentum as intraday gains defy trend

The nearest dynamic support on the daily chart is the Ichimoku Kijun at $196.26, with strong resistance around the MA-50 at $294.34. Momentum indicators are mixed: D1 MACD remains negative, suggesting bearish pressure, while ADX shows strong trend strength. Both RSI and CCI are in oversold territory, and the Stoch RSI is also oversold, indicating potential for a short-term bounce. BBP suggests sellers still dominate intraday, and the Awesome Oscillator’s “Strong Sell” direction supports the prevailing bearish trend. The price has climbed $17.11 higher (up 7.25%) from previous close, showing strength since the open, which started slightly lower with no true gap. The current price is near today’s high within a volatile session. There is clear strength toward the upper end of today’s range, but the divergence between momentum and oscillators warrants caution, as intraday performance contradicts larger trend momentum.

Sideways consolidation likely as bullish odds outweigh downside

For the next five trading days, the expected range is $242.39 – $249.89. The probability of a price increase is very high (more than 80%) based on the majority of weekly indicators showing bullish momentum, making a decline much less likely. The baseline scenario is that AAVE will consolidate sideways in the defined range. A bullish scenario would see a breakout above $249.89 toward $254.87, potentially opening the way for a higher move if sustained. If support near $242.39 fails, a bearish scenario could extend declines toward the Ichimoku Kijun near $196.26.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, emphasizes that Aave (AAVE) faces significant technical challenges, with persistent bearish momentum and persistent downside risks after the recent flash crash linked to major macro news. He notes that despite today’s intraday bounce and oversold signals, the prevailing sentiment and technical setup remain negative, especially as price trades just below the critical MA-200 at $254.87. The base case is a sideways consolidation in the $242.39 – $249.89 range, but he warns that further declines could resume if support fails. "As long as AAVE stays below $254.87, I remain cautious — any bullish signals need confirmation above this level before considering upside scenarios."

Previously, it was noted that momentum signals are mixed: while the daily MACD points to continued downside pressure, the ADX on both daily and weekly timeframes confirms strong trending conditions. Market sentiment was affected as highlighted by sharp declines across digital assets and increased sell pressure on Aave.

Source of Data: AAVE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.