USD/MYR holds RM4.0024 support as US Treasury buyback dampens sentiment

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US Dollar vs Malaysian Ringgit down 0.51%

Highlights

Weaker US economic indicators and the recent Treasury buyback announcement pushed the US Dollar Index below its 200-day moving average.
Reduced US Dollar demand has indirectly pressured USD/MYR, with the pair displaying subdued price action in this environment.
USD/MYR trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages with persistent bearish momentum signals; the next 2 to 3 days point to a high probability of a RM4.0024 to RM4.0426 range with further downside risk.

Dampened US dollar sentiment as data and buyback shift flows

TD Securities strategists reported that weaker US economic data, combined with the recent Treasury buyback announcement, contributed to the US Dollar Index falling below its 200-day simple moving average, according to Fxstreet. This event has dampened overall demand for the US Dollar, which in turn weighs on the US Dollar vs Malaysian Ringgit through indirect sentiment effects. The shift in USD sentiment aligns with the broader environment of subdued price action for this currency pair.

Seller momentum persists as price tests support below key MAs

The pair is trading below both the MA-20 at RM4.0366 and MA-50 at RM4.0402, while remaining above the MA-200 at RM3.9987. On the intraday chart, the Ichimoku Kijun resistance stands at RM4.0353, with immediate support forming at the MA-200 level. MACD and ADX both reflect ongoing selling momentum, while RSI falls to 25.5697, Stoch RSI is deeply oversold, and CCI remains on a sell signal. Bull/Bear Power continues to suggest prevailing seller dominance, and the Awesome Oscillator remains neutral, with no divergence among the momentum indicators.

Further downside likely as consolidation defines near-term risk

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/MYR is expected to remain in a consolidation band between RM4.0024 and RM4.0426, reflecting typical volatility. The probability of a further downside move is assessed as high in the current context, while a near-term recovery appears unlikely. A bullish scenario requires a clear break above RM4.0353 resistance, whereas a bearish scenario would be confirmed by a drop below RM4.0024, potentially opening the way for additional declines.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, Traders Union expert, notes that USD/MYR remains under pressure in the wake of weaker US data and the Treasury buyback news, which continue to affect overall sentiment toward the US Dollar. He sees current levels as broadly consolidative, but expects the bearish tone to persist unless key resistance at RM4.0353 is reclaimed. Momentum and indicator structure remain aligned with sellers, while the longer-term trend is not yet threatened. The expert maintains a constructive but cautious optimism, citing macro headwinds and technical factors. "If USD/MYR can hold above RM4.0024, I see room for a technical bounce, but a sustained recovery needs clear improvement in US sentiment and market tone first."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/MYR was facing short-term downside pressure while maintaining longer-term support. The current analysis confirms this cautious outlook and highlights that sustained trading below short- and medium-term moving averages increases the risk of a decisive break below the MA-200 support, which traders should monitor as a potential signal for further weakness.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.