USD/MYR holds near RM4.0573 support amid pending Bank of Japan policy meeting

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US Dollar vs Ringgit down 0.43% today

Highlights

The ringgit opened higher versus the US dollar as traders reduced exposure ahead of key central bank policy meetings.
Short-term uncertainty surrounding upcoming decisions from the Federal Open Market Committee and the Bank of Japan limited conviction in directional moves for USD/MYR.
USD/MYR trades below key short-term moving averages, with mixed momentum signals and a high probability of a downward move in a RM4.0381 to RM4.0787 range over the next several days.

Investor caution rises ahead of Fed and BoJ decisions

The Malaysian ringgit opened higher against the US dollar as investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of this week’s monetary policy meetings by the Federal Open Market Committee and the Bank of Japan, according to Malaymail. The anticipation of key decisions from these central banks led market participants to reduce exposure in USD/MYR, heightening short-term uncertainty in the currency pair. This backdrop has contributed to limited conviction in directional moves through the session.

Conflicting momentum as key support holds above MA-200

On the hourly chart, USD/MYR is positioned below the MA-20 at RM4.0693 and the MA-50 at RM4.066, while remaining above the MA-200 at RM4.0047. Immediate support is identified at the Ichimoku Kijun level of RM4.0573. Momentum indicators show mixed signals: MACD signals strong buy momentum, whereas ADX suggests a sell; RSI stands at 41.8584, while Stochastic RSI confirms oversold conditions and CCI remains neutral. Bull/Bear Power points to intraday buyer dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator offers a neutral outlook.

Downside risk grows if support is breached near-term

Over the next two to three trading days, USD/MYR is expected to trade within a typical volatility band of RM4.0381 to RM4.0787. The probability of an upward breakout is assessed as very low, with a much higher likelihood of a downward move should immediate support fail. The baseline scenario is for continued sideways movement within the current range; a bullish scenario requires a sustained break above resistance, while a bearish scenario would follow if the price closes decisively below immediate support.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees a cautious but constructive outlook for USD/MYR as macro sentiment dominates. He believes the ringgit’s early strength and the market’s wait-and-see approach ahead of the FOMC and BOJ decisions keep directional conviction limited for now. Price action suggests sideways trading within RM4.0381 to RM4.0787, but the longer-term trend remains intact above major support. He expects any developing trend to hinge on global central bank signals and macro shifts. "If the pair remains above RM4.0573, I see potential for a rebound once policy uncertainty clears."

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/MYR faced ongoing uncertainty with mixed technical signals and limited directional conviction. The current analysis reinforces this indecisive environment, highlighting that sustained movement below immediate support could signal a shift toward renewed downside risk in the coming sessions.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.