Over 1% gain for US Dollar vs Yen as technical resistance caps rebound despite buy surge

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Us dollar/yen rises 1.17% today

Highlights

USD/JPY reversed an early dip below 156.00, with gains coinciding with retreating US Treasury yields and oil prices.
Investors await further clarity on Bank of Japan policy tightening, focusing on upcoming remarks from Governor Ueda.
Intraday buying boosted USD/JPY near 157.8, but technical indicators favor downside and project a 156.22 to 159.39 trading range.

Intraday dollar recovery follows retreat in US yields and oil

The US Dollar vs Yen reversed an intraday dip below 156.00 in Asian trading, attempting to extend its recent gains. This move came as US Treasury yields and oil prices retreated following the latest Federal Reserve meeting. Market participants are now watching for further signals on potential Bank of Japan policy tightening, with attention on upcoming remarks from Governor Ueda.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, identifies persistent downside risk in USD/JPY despite its recent rebound. He sees the pair constrained by major moving averages and weak long-term momentum, while negative signals from MACD and RSI confirm ongoing seller dominance. He cautions that brief intraday buying does not alter the underlying bearish structure, with volatility suggesting little conviction. News of possible Bank of Japan tightening adds further uncertainty and potential for reversal. "With most indicators flashing sell signals and upside capped, I consider any recovery as a fading opportunity rather than a sustainable trend."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, views the fundamental setup as supportive for further USD/JPY growth. He highlights ongoing attention to Bank of Japan policy shifts and a constructive tone after the pair's recovery above ¥156.00. Karapetjanc points out that US Treasury yields and retreating oil prices offer opportunities for renewed bullish momentum. He remains confident in the pair’s upside scenario, with technical ceilings acting as near-term targets. "If broader macro flows remain favorable, the bullish structure remains intact and further growth is expected toward the upper range."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, sees a divergence between short-term upside and broader seller pressure in USD/JPY. He notes that the strong intraday move may offer tactical breakout trades above ¥158.49 or reversals on signs of exhaustion. Mehta emphasizes possible contrarian entries based on overbought momentum signals. "A tactical approach could favor fading rallies near resistance, but a break above the current ceiling may trigger swift upside moves."

Bearish longer-term bias persists amid overbought intraday surge

USD/JPY is trading above the 20-day moving average (¥156.5), but remains below both the 50-day (¥158.49) and 200-day (¥158.85) moving averages. This setup points to short-term upside, while medium- and long-term trends are still dominated by seller pressure, highlighted by the bearish 50-day and 200-day alignment. The near-term ceiling is at ¥158.49, with immediate support at the intraday high of ¥157.33. The Ichimoku Kijun at ¥156.65 provides further short-term support. Momentum signals are mostly negative: MACD and ADX indicate selling pressure, and the RSI is weak at 45.82, supporting a sell signal. Stochastic RSI is deeply overbought at 92.55, and the CCI is neutral at -19.76. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 0.75 shows intraday buyer dominance in the context of an overbought market. Intraday volatility is 0.92%, with price action strong near its daily high. There is divergence between the current intraday buying surge and softer longer-term momentum.

Earlier, analysts noted that USD/JPY was experiencing a period of sideways trading amid mixed technical signals and closely watched support and resistance levels. The current setup reinforces the importance of monitoring the ¥158.49 resistance, as a sustained move above this level could challenge prevailing downward momentum in the week ahead.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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