EUR/CHF holds steady amid weak momentum

Traders Union
All News
Currency
Euro vs Swiss Franc drops 0.5% today

Highlights

The Swiss National Bank kept its policy rate at 0% and reduced support for the franc, easing foreign exchange intervention.
The ECB set the EUR/CHF reference rate at 0.9359, influencing cross-border funding and interbank conditions in the currency pair.
EUR/CHF trades below key short- and medium-term moving averages, with technicals showing strong bearish pressure and a projected range of Fr.0.9267 to Fr.0.9367 over the next 2 to 3 days.

Franc support wanes as SNB eases intervention stance

The Swiss National Bank maintained its policy rate at 0% and, according to Thoughtsfortheday Substack, softened its foreign-exchange intervention stance in September, reducing support for the franc as a safe-haven asset. This policy adjustment signals a less aggressive approach to CHF appreciation, potentially altering institutional flows in the EUR/CHF pair. Meanwhile, the ECB reference rate for EUR/CHF was set at 0.9359, anchoring cross-border funding and interbank pricing conditions.

Diverging momentum signals with resistance capped by Ichimoku Kijun

On the technical front, EUR/CHF remains below the MA-20 (Fr.0.9356) and MA-50 (Fr.0.9339) on the hourly chart, while staying above the MA-200 (Fr.0.924) on the daily timeframe. Immediate resistance is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at Fr.0.9341, with support near Fr.0.9267. Momentum indicators are mixed: RSI stands at 40.44 (Sell), CCI is oversold, and Bull/Bear Power continues to show intraday seller dominance. Both MACD and Awesome Oscillator are neutral, ADX points to Sell, and Stoch RSI is neutral, underscoring the divergence among signals.

Sideways outlook as breakout risk skews to downside

Over the next two to three trading days, EUR/CHF is expected to remain within a volatility band between Fr.0.9267 and Fr.0.9367. The likelihood of a breakout to the upside appears very low, with downside risk rated high and a reversal higher deemed unlikely. The baseline scenario calls for sideways action within the stated corridor, while a move above resistance at Fr.0.9341 could open room for short-term gains. Conversely, a close below Fr.0.9267 would expose the pair to further downside momentum.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees a limited upside for EUR/CHF as fundamental and technical signals remain weak. He notes that the Swiss National Bank’s policy stance removed a key support for the franc, but EUR/CHF remains under selling pressure with mixed momentum indicators. The base case is for continued sideways movement unless Fr.0.9341 is convincingly broken. "Until resistance at Fr.0.9341 is reclaimed, the path of least resistance is lower and I stay defensive on EUR/CHF."

Earlier, analysts noted that Euro vs Swiss Franc had shown bullish momentum amid European political and fiscal uncertainties, with traders focusing on the durability of key support levels. The current article signals a shift toward weaker upside potential and elevated downside risk, making it essential for traders to monitor the Fr.0.9341 resistance and Fr.0.9267 support as pivotal levels for any directional move.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.