EUR/BDT technical analysis: Range-bound trading as overbought conditions signal short-term pullback risk

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Euro vs taka slides 0.86% today

Highlights

Bangladesh's central bank set new official Euro exchange rates at 138.24 BDT to buy and 138.42 BDT to sell, providing benchmarks for interbank and market participants.
These published rates seek to reinforce monetary transparency and shape liquidity and commercial pricing frameworks, with market activity continuing under wider selling pressure.
EUR/BDT trades below key moving averages, faces immediate resistance, and is expected to range between BDT136.204 and BDT138.26 over the next two to three days.

Official benchmark rates guide liquidity as central bank steps in

The central bank of Bangladesh has published updated official foreign exchange rates for the Euro, with benchmark levels set at 138.24 BDT for buying and 138.42 BDT for selling, according to Banking Gurukul Edu. This action signals ongoing oversight and transparency from monetary authorities, providing a reference point for interbank and market-driven rates. The published rates help frame liquidity conditions and guide commercial pricing, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Overbought momentum limits rebound amid mixed intraday signals

On the technical front, EUR/BDT is trading below the MA-20 (BDT137.606) and MA-50 (BDT137.875) on the hourly timeframe, while remaining well below the MA-200 (BDT141.935) on the daily chart. The Ichimoku Kijun level at BDT137.78 stands as immediate resistance. Momentum indicators deliver a mixed picture: ADX and Bull/Bear Power are giving buy signals, and the Awesome Oscillator supports a bullish tone intraday. However, MACD is neutral. Oscillators highlight overbought conditions — RSI is at 64.281 (Buy), with both Stochastic RSI and CCI also overbought, indicating risk of a short-term pullback.

Sideways bias prevails unless resistance or support yields

Looking ahead, EUR/BDT is likely to trade within the BDT136.204 to BDT138.26 range over the next 2–3 days. Forecast models suggest a 64% probability for an upward move and a 36% chance of further declines, with the base scenario favoring sideways price action within the established corridor. A bullish move is expected if price breaks above immediate resistance, while violation of the lower support would trigger a bearish scenario.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/BDT trading defensively amid persistent downside pressure. He notes that while the central bank’s rate updates ensure transparency, technical resistance remains unchallenged and price action is weak. Cautious signals from oscillators back his skeptical stance. "Until EUR/BDT reclaims BDT137.78 and signals fresh upside, staying defensive is the prudent approach," says Kharitonov.

Earlier, analysts noted that sustained bearish momentum continued to dominate EUR/BDT with downside risks prevailing in the near term. The latest technical signals indicate a potential shift, as mixed momentum readings and overbought oscillators suggest traders should monitor for a possible reversal or volatility spike if immediate support or resistance levels are breached.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.