Euro to Indian rupee rate boosted by Jio inflows and RBI moves: Can EUR/INR continue gains?

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Euro vs Indian Rupee up 0.48% today

Highlights

Recent rupee strength stems from large foreign inflows linked to the Jio Platforms IPO and the Reserve Bank of India limiting dollar demand.
An IMF official urges the Reserve Bank of India to allow greater rupee exchange rate flexibility in response to global oil price moves.
EUR/INR trades near ₹106.58, with upward intraday momentum amid overbought signals and a projected 1-day range of ₹106.0489 to ₹107.1147.

Foreign inflows and rbi measures support rupee amid policy debate

The most recent strengthening in the Indian rupee has been driven by substantial foreign inflows related to the Jio Platforms IPO, as well as active steps by the Reserve Bank of India to restrict dollar demand, according to Business Standard. These factors have increased the availability of foreign currency and helped temper demand-side pressures on the rupee, influencing cross rates such as EUR/INR. Separately, an International Monetary Fund official has urged the Reserve Bank of India to allow for greater exchange rate flexibility in response to global oil price movements, noting recent central bank interventions to stabilize the currency, according to Bloomberg.

Near-term bullish momentum as overbought signals counter long-term weakness

The hourly chart reveals EUR/INR remains above both the MA-20 and MA-50, while the daily chart shows price action still well below the MA-200, indicating a longer-term bearish overhang. Immediate support is defined by the Ichimoku Kijun at ₹106.2015. Among key indicators, ADX and RSI signal that buyers retain short-term control, but MACD remains neutral. Both Stochastic RSI and CCI have entered overbought territory, and Bull/Bear Power together with a positive Awesome Oscillator reading align with intraday buyer strength, highlighting a potential divergence between near-term momentum and overbought conditions.

Upside bias prevails as consolidation expected within defined range

For the next trading day, EUR/INR is expected to remain in a volatility band between ₹106.0489 and ₹107.1147. There is a high probability (76%) of further upside within this range, while the risk of a move lower is less likely (24%). The baseline scenario is for the pair to consolidate within these bounds; a decisive move above resistance could trigger additional gains, while a fall below ₹106.2015 would open the door to short-term downside risk.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees EUR/INR as constrained by fundamental inflows and cautious policy signals. Despite recent rupee gains, technical momentum is at odds with a longer-term bearish backdrop. He remains alert to the risk of intraday volatility but favors a defensive approach unless key resistance is broken. "Base case is range consolidation within ₹106.0489 to ₹107.1147 — until we see a close above resistance, I don’t trust the upside."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/INR faced persistent downside momentum with bearish technical signals dominating the outlook. The current analysis introduces short-term buyer strength and overbought signals, highlighting the importance of monitoring for a potential breakout above ₹107.1147 or a reversal below ₹106.2015 for directional cues.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.