Euro to Indian rupee prediction: Consolidation likely as buyers keep momentum flat

Traders Union
All News
Currency
Euro vs Indian Rupee gains 0.45% today

Highlights

Strong foreign fund inflows and robust domestic equities have bolstered the rupee, affecting the EUR/INR rate dynamics.
Elevated inflows continue to support the rupee's resilience despite higher crude prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
EUR/INR trades with short- and medium-term bullish momentum, expected to move between ₹105.981 and ₹107.0462 with a high probability of an upward move.

Increased rupee resilience as fund inflows offset global risks

The recent appreciation of the Indian rupee against the US dollar, supported by foreign fund inflows and strong domestic equities, has played a key role in shaping the dynamics of the EUR/INR rate, according to Rediff. Elevated inflows have fueled sustained demand for the rupee, increasing its resilience even as external factors such as higher crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions persist, as reported by Business Standard. Together, these factors contribute to a stable backdrop for the euro-rupee pair, as the strength in INR continues to offset downward risks from external market shifts.

Momentum favors buyers as price holds above key short-term averages

On the technical front, EUR/INR is presently trading above its MA-20 and MA-50 on the hourly chart, but remains below the MA-200. The Ichimoku Kijun at ₹106.2023 is acting as a nearby support level. Positive momentum is confirmed by both MACD and ADX in buy positions, and Bull/Bear Power remains positive at 0.1044, indicating buyer activity dominates intraday trading. Meanwhile, RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI are all in neutral zones, showing an absence of short-term momentum extremes. The Awesome Oscillator also confirms the upward bias, with intraday price action holding near session highs and no divergence seen across key indicators.

Range-bound action anticipated as upside risk outweighs declines

Looking ahead, the anticipated price range for EUR/INR over the next two to three sessions is from ₹105.981 to ₹107.0462, reflecting typical volatility. The baseline scenario suggests a range-bound movement within this corridor. The probability of an upward move is assessed as very high relative to the likelihood of a decline. A breakout above resistance would open the path for further gains, while a sustained move below the support near ₹106.2023 could invite deeper retracements.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, senior analyst at Traders Union, sees the recent rupee strength as a crucial macro factor underpinning the current EUR/INR stability. Solid foreign inflows and robust domestic equities continue to reinforce market confidence in the INR and limit euro gains for now. Technical momentum confirms upward intraday bias, though broader direction remains range-bound within expected levels. Karapetjanc believes optimism remains justified but expects any breakout to be gradual. "Persistent capital flows and supportive fundamentals tilt the balance in favor of INR, making any EUR/INR advance a slow grind rather than a sharp rally."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/INR was experiencing near-term volatility amid shifting regulatory considerations and mixed technical signals. The current analysis adds a new dimension by highlighting resilient rupee inflows and stable macro conditions, suggesting traders should monitor for any breakouts from the established volatility corridor as a signal for the next directional move.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.