AUD/VND holds steady above ₫17,960 support amid range-bound trading signals

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Australian Dollar vs Dong up 0.51% today

Highlights

Vietnam reduced the special consumption tax on all petrol types to 0% from November 1, cutting retail fuel prices by more than 1,800 VND per litre.
Lower fuel costs are expected to ease inflationary pressures and reduce input and transportation expenses across Vietnam's economy.
AUD/VND trades with short- and medium-term strength but faces long-term seller pressure, with a projected 2 to 3 day range of ₫17,944 to ₫18,125 and momentum indicators showing increased correction risk.

Fuel tax cut eases inflation as diesel prices drop in Vietnam

Vietnam has cut the special consumption tax on all types of petrol to 0% effective November 1, resulting in retail fuel prices falling by more than 1,800 VND per litre as reported by Vietnamplus. This move is part of the government's efforts to ease fuel costs and curb inflationary pressures, likely reducing input and transportation expenses within Vietnam's economy. The policy is expected to moderate inflation and could indirectly affect demand for imports, potentially influencing AUD/VND flows by shifting trade dynamics.

Mixed momentum emerges as technical signals clash near resistance

On the technical front, AUD/VND is positioned above the MA-20 and MA-50 on the H1 chart, yet remains below the MA-200 on the daily timeframe. Immediate support is found at the Ichimoku Kijun level of ₫17,960. The MACD indicator remains neutral, while the ADX provides a buy signal, reflecting mixed momentum. RSI shows a neutral reading, whereas both Stochastic RSI and CCI are in their overbought zones, flagging a risk of near-term correction. Despite this, intraday Bull/Bear Power is positive and the Awesome Oscillator supports the short-term upside, though there is a divergence between overheated oscillator signals and momentum indicators.

Even odds for breakout or pullback amid sideways trade outlook

In the coming 2–3 trading days, AUD/VND is expected to fluctuate within a band of ₫17,944 to ₫18,125, reflecting typical volatility relative to current levels. The probability of an upward or downward move is evenly balanced at 50%, pointing to a baseline scenario of sideways trading. A bullish scenario may be triggered if the rate breaks above resistance, opening scope for additional short-term gains, while a break below support could initiate a deeper pullback.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes that AUD/VND is showing only minor changes, with price action remaining contained by nearby technical levels. He sees that Vietnam's petrol tax cut eases some inflation pressure but has yet to tilt currency flows in a decisive direction. Oscillator signals warn of potential pullback, while momentum indicators are mixed. "Until we see a break above ₫18,125 or below ₫17,944, I remain neutral on this pair."

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/VND was entrenched in a bearish trend driven by sustained downside pressure and negative momentum signals. With the current technical mix showing potential for both short-term upside and a risk of near-term correction, traders should closely monitor for a break above resistance or below immediate support as cues for the next significant directional move.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.