Over 1% drop for Australian Dollar vs Yen as downside momentum holds across all timeframes

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Australian dollar slides 1.10% today

Highlights

AUD/JPY trades below major daily moving averages, showing downward pressure across short, medium, and long-term trends.
Momentum indicators present a mixed view, with a weak trend, neutral overbought/oversold signals, and modest short-term buyer strength.
The pair is projected to move between ¥108.99 and ¥110.70 over the next five days, with a baseline scenario of sideways consolidation.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees AUD/JPY drifting lower as bearish technicals persist. He notes the absence of supportive news and highlights weak momentum, with the pair stuck below all major moving averages. The lack of fundamental drivers adds to the downside risk. Kharitonov emphasizes muted trend strength, as shown by the low ADX and neutral oscillators. "Current conditions suggest AUD/JPY remains vulnerable, and I see limited upside unless a clear catalyst appears," he cautions.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, acknowledges today's sell-off but sees scope for a near-term bounce. He points out that the projected volatility range offers multiple trading setups and the probability tilted toward recovery. Karapetjanc argues the underlying structure gives room for constructive opportunities if resistance at ¥110.11 is reclaimed. "I believe a move above the Ichimoku Kijun will reinvigorate bullish sentiment and support further gains in AUD/JPY," he states.

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, notes the conflict between persistent downside pressure and pockets of buyer momentum. He observes mixed signals in daily momentum and advises watching for a tactical breakout above ¥110.11. Mehta views the sideways drift as a potential range-trading scenario. "Traders should consider both breakout and mean-reversion strategies as the intraday volatility band tightens," he suggests.

Bearish setup persists as support holds and momentum diverges

AUD/JPY is trading below all key daily moving averages, with the MA-20 at ¥110.51, MA-50 at ¥110.57, and MA-200 at ¥112.27. This configuration signals prevailing downward pressure on short-, medium-, and long-term trends under seller dominance. The Ichimoku Kijun at ¥110.11 caps the near-term ceiling, and initial support is nearby at ¥109.58, the week's low. Daily momentum is mixed: MACD signals buy, but the ADX at 16.62 points to a weak trend, while RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI each remain neutral. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 0.62 highlights modest intraday buyer strength. AUD/JPY slid sharply by ¥1.22 today and opened flat, now trading near session lows. Intraday volatility stands at 0.66%, with a pressured tone after the open. The broader structure is bearish, though modest bullish momentum signals create some conflict.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/JPY was constrained by persistent long-term resistance despite pockets of short-term bullish momentum. The current breakdown below all major moving averages adds a decisive bearish tilt, with traders advised to monitor ¥109.58 as a near-term support level that could signal further downside risk if breached.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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