AUD/INR falls amid renewed foreign investment inflows boosting INR

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Australian dollar falls 1.56% vs rupee

Highlights

Renewed foreign portfolio investment inflows have increased direct demand for the Indian rupee against the Australian dollar.
A softer US dollar and lower crude oil prices have improved macro stability and inflation outlook in India.
AUD/INR trades below key moving averages with bearish momentum; expected range for the next 2 to 3 days is ₹64.2731 to ₹64.9191.

Foreign inflows boost rupee strength amid softer dollar and oil retreat

Renewed foreign investment inflows into India have supported the Indian rupee, as capital entering domestic markets increases direct demand for INR and strengthens its position against the Australian dollar, according to Bfsi Economictimes Indiatimes. Increased foreign portfolio inflows and a softer US dollar following the US midterm elections, as reported by Businesstoday, have further contributed to the rupee’s upward momentum by attracting cross-border investment and enhancing the appeal of emerging market currencies. Additionally, falling crude oil prices and the resulting easing of inflationary pressures in India have improved macroeconomic stability, supporting an environment where the rupee remains in favor.

Oversold signals intensify with strong sell momentum below technical barriers

On the technical front, AUD/INR is trading below the MA-20 at ₹65.4584 and the MA-50 at ₹65.9366 on the hourly chart, with the pair also remaining under the longer-term MA-200 at ₹67.079. The Ichimoku Kijun at ₹65.4811 acts as an immediate resistance level. Momentum indicators continue to show both MACD and ADX in a Sell configuration, while RSI, Stoch RSI, and CCI all register in oversold territory. Bull/Bear Power is negative at -0.4124, and the Awesome Oscillator remains aligned with intraday sellers. The price currently sits near today's low at ₹64.5961 amidst moderate volatility and a small negative gap, reflecting strong selling pressure yet also showing some divergence as oscillators indicate near-term exhaustion.

Further downside likely as probability favors extended bearish move

Over the next 23 trading days, AUD/INR is expected to trade between ₹64.2731 and ₹64.9191, representing the typical volatility band relative to current levels. The probability of a further decline stands at 78%, suggesting downside momentum is likely to persist. Baseline expectations call for sideways movement within the established support and resistance levels, while a bullish scenario would require a breakout above the ₹65.4811 resistance, opening the path for a corrective move higher. Conversely, a sustained move below ₹64.2731 would indicate renewed selling pressure and the risk of further downside.

Anton Kharitonov, analyst at Traders Union, sees clear evidence of fundamental support for INR, with foreign investment inflows and a softer US dollar putting lasting pressure on AUD/INR. Downside momentum is confirmed by the pair trading below major moving averages and oversold indicators suggesting sellers remain in control. He remains cautious given the strong selling pressure and only sees potential for a corrective move if ₹65.4811 resistance is reclaimed. "Base case remains downside as long as AUD/INR stays below short-term resistance — rallies are sell opportunities in this environment."

Earlier, analysts noted that persistent selling momentum and weak technical indicators were keeping AUD/INR under downside pressure. The current analysis not only confirms this bearish outlook but also highlights an elevated probability of further declines, making sustained price action below ₹64.2731 a key risk traders should monitor in the days ahead.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.