Australian Dollar vs Vietnamese Dong drops more than 1% after trading below major moving averages and continued downside momentum

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Australian dollar drops 1.06% today

Highlights

AUD/VND trades below all major moving averages, reinforcing a bearish outlook across short, medium, and long-term periods.
Bearish momentum remains strong as MACD, ADX, and oscillators are in oversold zones, indicating selling exhaustion risk without clear reversal signs.
The projected five-day range is ₫17,265 to ₫17,776, with a 75% probability of further downside and resistance at ₫17,534.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the AUD/VND under severe selling pressure with technical signals providing little hope for buyers. He notes that the absence of supportive news and persistent downward momentum across all timeframes expose the pair to further declines. Kharitonov highlights the alignment of moving averages as a clear warning sign. He warns that oversold signals may only lead to a brief pause rather than a true reversal. "Given the depth of the ongoing downtrend, I believe that risks of renewed declines far outweigh any short-lived bounce."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, remains confident that opportunities will arise even in challenging conditions. He points out that oversold readings on several momentum indicators can create fertile ground for tactical bull setups if resistance at ₫17,534 is breached. The expert emphasizes that strong technical supports like ₫17,265 offer potential for attractive risk-adjusted entries should market sentiment shift. "Despite short-term weakness, the market structure is dynamic — I expect traders to find setups for quick rebounds or trend reversals within this volatility band."

Jainam Mehta, market strategist, views the latest price action as technically oversold but not yet primed for a durable turnaround. He flags risk of further downside unless the pair can reclaim ₫17,534, though a contrarian short-term rebound cannot be dismissed. "A breakout above nearby resistance may offer tactical opportunities, but downside protection remains crucial in current conditions."

Oversold conditions and aligned moving averages reinforce downside risk

AUD/VND is trading decisively below its MA-20 (₫18,011), MA-50 (₫18,137), and MA-200 (₫18,458), signaling strong selling pressure across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons. The bearish long-term outlook is further confirmed by the alignment of the MA-50 below the MA-200. Immediate resistance is established at ₫17,534, while key support stands at ₫17,265. Momentum indicators remain deeply negative: MACD and ADX reflect persistent downside momentum. RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI all signal oversold conditions, indicating the market is technically stretched to the downside, which introduces selling exhaustion risk without guaranteeing a reversal. BBP remains negative, confirming sellers' control of intraday action, and the Awesome Oscillator supports the ongoing bearish momentum.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/VND faced persistent bearish pressure, with downside risks reinforced by both technical weakness and evolving fundamental factors. The current analysis strengthens this outlook as sustained sell-side momentum and oversold conditions suggest continued vulnerability, making ₫17,265 a critical level to monitor for renewed downside acceleration in the near term.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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