EUR/INR technical analysis: Consolidation near ₹104.0961 support as bearish momentum persists

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Euro vs rupee down 0.46% today

Highlights

The Indian rupee has reached multi-month highs against the US dollar due to increased foreign capital inflows and reduced crude oil prices.
Easing global headwinds and a softer US dollar have contributed to the rupee's gains versus major currencies including the euro.
EUR/INR trades below key moving averages with strong bearish momentum and is expected to remain within ₹104.0961 to ₹105.1423 over the next two to three days.

Rupee strength intensifies as capital inflows and oil retreat

The Indian rupee has recently appreciated to multi-month highs against the US dollar, as reported by FXStreet, driven by robust foreign capital inflows and a decline in crude oil prices. This influx of foreign investment has increased demand for the rupee, while lower energy costs have strengthened its macroeconomic position, both factors exerting downward pressure on the EUR/INR rate. Further, economists cited by Tribuneindia noted that easing global headwinds and a weaker US dollar have also played a role in attracting capital and boosting rupee performance against other currencies, including the euro.

Bearish technicals persist as sellers dominate below resistance

On the hourly chart, EUR/INR is trading below the MA-20 at ₹105.114 and the MA-50 at ₹104.9838. The pair also remains under the long-term MA-200 at ₹109.348, with the Ichimoku Kijun positioned at ₹105.3228 as immediate resistance. MACD and ADX both point to a bearish momentum setup. RSI is neutral, but Stochastic RSI and CCI both register in oversold territory, indicating potential selling exhaustion. Bull/Bear Power is negative at -0.2691, confirming intraday seller dominance, while the Awesome Oscillator supports the prevailing bearish momentum.

Near-term losses favored as resistance holds and volatility narrows

Over the next two to three trading days, EUR/INR is expected to fluctuate within a range of ₹104.0961 to ₹105.1423, reflecting a typical volatility band relative to current levels. The likelihood of a move higher remains very low, while the probability of continued declines is high. In the base scenario, the pair is likely to remain contained within this corridor. A sustained bullish reversal would require a decisive break above immediate resistance at ₹105.3228, while further downside would be confirmed if support near the lower end of the range gives way.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees persistent downside pressure on EUR/INR as the rupee benefits from strong foreign capital inflows and cheaper crude oil. He notes that technical momentum remains firmly bearish, with multiple indicators signaling ongoing seller dominance. The analyst remains cautious on any EUR/INR rebound while the pair trades below major resistances. "Base case remains lower for EUR/INR, and unless we reclaim ₹105.3228, there is little reason to expect a bullish reversal."

Earlier, analysts noted that EUR/INR maintained a persistently bearish structure across all time frames, with downside risks prevailing in the absence of a decisive trend reversal. The current technical and macroeconomic landscape continues to reinforce this view, with traders closely monitoring support near ₹104.0961 as a breach could open the door to accelerated declines in the near term.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.