Euro vs Dollar edges lower as bearish momentum and negative technical structure persist

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Eur/usd slides 0.62% today

Highlights

EUR/USD trades below major moving averages, confirming persistent short-, medium- and long-term bearish pressure.
Downside momentum dominates intraday with the pair reaching $1.1098, down 0.62%, as volatility registers at 0.76%.
The five-day range is projected between $1.103 and $1.1165 with an over 80% probability of further downward movement.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, believes EUR/USD is under strong sustained bearish momentum. He notes the pair’s failure to reclaim key moving averages and highlights strong downside signals from the MACD, with only fleeting intraday buyer strength. With all major technical levels reinforcing pressure, Kharitonov sees little support in sentiment or fundamentals, as the absence of relevant news removes any immediate catalysts for reversal. He warns that volatility could persist, especially if the pair breaches $1.1086. "Until EUR/USD breaks above $1.1165, I see further downside likely — traders should be alert for deeper lows and avoid premature long entries."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, notes that the current EUR/USD sell-off opens tactical opportunities. He sees the market structure as ripe for traders watching for directional shifts. Confidence remains high for trend-followers, especially if support at $1.103 holds. Even with recent losses, Karapetjanc believes the next five days present several actionable scenarios for proactive traders. "As long as the price remains near support, the market offers setups for both trend continuation and quick rebounds, so I remain constructive on tactical opportunities here."

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, observes that EUR/USD is firmly in the grip of sellers, with technical weakness clear across all major timeframes. He underscores that trend momentum and sentiment indicators still favor the downside. The lack of positive macro or news events removes any argument for a quick recovery. "Without supportive news or improving sentiment, I expect EUR/USD to remain vulnerable to fresh lows in the short term."

Persistent downside bias as key averages and mixed momentum indicators align

EUR/USD continues to trade below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at $1.1194, $1.1272, and $1.1501, respectively, confirming persistent bearish pressure across all timeframes. The pair is near its session low, with immediate resistance at $1.1132 and support at today's low of $1.1086. The longer-term bearish bias is further validated by the 50-day versus 200-day alignment. Momentum indicators are mixed: while the MACD points to strong downside, the ADX reflects steady trend strength. RSI, Stochastic RSI, and CCI are all neutral. Bull/Bear Power gives a slight intraday edge to buyers, but the Awesome Oscillator adds to the overall negative bias. Intraday tone remains weak, with sellers in control after the open and volatility at 0.76%.

Earlier, analysts noted that sustained downside risks persisted for EUR/USD as macroeconomic and technical factors continued to support a bearish outlook. The latest price action confirms this bias, with the prevailing scenario favoring further weakness unless a decisive move above $1.1165 signals a potential reversal.

Source of Data: EUR Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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