Why is AUD/JPY down 0.4% today?

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Australian dollar slides 0.49% today

Highlights

AUD/JPY trades below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages, indicating persistent downside pressure across all time frames.
Most momentum indicators confirm a bearish setup, with MACD and ADX showing selling conditions and oversold readings on Stochastic RSI and CCI.
AUD/JPY is expected to remain in a sideways range of ¥107.74 to ¥108.82 over the next five trading days, with a high probability of a further decline.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, notes clear weakness in AUD/JPY as the pair remains under all major moving averages. He highlights that technical indicators confirm sustained seller dominance despite some signs of short-term selling exhaustion. The absence of bullish momentum and the persistent downside bias increase the risk of further declines. Kharitonov draws attention to the lack of positive news drivers, which limits any near-term recovery potential. "In my view, unless AUD/JPY breaks above ¥108.82, sellers will continue to control the pace," Kharitonov says.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, acknowledges ongoing pressure but sees opportunity for traders. He points to robust support at ¥107.74 as a potential stabilization zone, which could provide attractive set-ups for range trading. Karapetjanc remains confident that, despite immediate technical headwinds, volatility around these levels offers tactical upside for short-term traders. "With strong support and contained risks, this market still offers dynamic opportunities for nimble participants," Karapetjanc states.

Sholanke Dele, market strategist, observes that bearish sentiment is dominant for AUD/JPY. He notes the lack of relevant news further weighs on confidence and leaves the pair vulnerable. With downside momentum intact, Dele cautions that a drop below ¥107.74 would likely accelerate selling. "Given the current sentiment and absence of fresh catalysts, rallies should be viewed with skepticism," Dele warns.

Bearish technical setup as weak momentum aligns with supports

AUD/JPY trades below the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages at ¥110.08, ¥110.36, and ¥112.2, indicating persistent short-, medium-, and long-term downside pressure. The moving average setup remains bearish, with the MA-50 below the MA-200. Immediate support is found at ¥108.17, while resistance is set at ¥108.61. Technical momentum remains weak: both MACD and ADX indicate sell conditions. The RSI is neutral, while Stochastic RSI and CCI are in oversold zones, pointing to temporary selling exhaustion, and Bull/Bear Power confirms intraday seller dominance.

Earlier, analysts noted that AUD/JPY was entrenched in a persistent bearish trend with sustained downward momentum. The current technical setup strengthens this view, with traders advised to monitor ¥107.74 as a critical level that could trigger another round of downside if breached.

Source of Data: AUD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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