ONS outlines plan to update economic measurement for AI and data by 2030

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ONS economic measurement for AI

Highlights

ONS will revamp UK economic measurement to comply with SNA 2025 by 2030, expanding GDP coverage to AI, data, digital assets, and cloud computing.
UK intangible investment reached £245 billion in 2023, with only half capitalised in GDP, and new standards will broaden inclusion by bringing in data.
In three months to August, UK GDP rose 1.8% year-on-year, with ICT contributing a quarter of growth, business investment up 5%, and digital infrastructure investment reaching £11 billion annually in 2024–2025.

Measurement overhaul targets AI, data and digital assets

As reported by Office for National Statistics, citing James Benford's Deane-Stone lecture on 4 November, the agency is working to revamp surveys and statistical outputs so material changes under the latest international national accounts standards feed into UK GDP by 2030. The framework agreed last year, SNA 2025, expands coverage to areas including data, digital platforms, cloud computing, multinational activity, new financial assets and resource depletion, while classifying AI systems as a form of software.

Benford said intangible assets have been central to UK growth over the past three decades, with total UK intangible investment estimated at about £245 billion in 2023. Roughly half of that is currently capitalised in GDP, with research and development and software the largest components, and the new standards are due to extend the boundary further by bringing in data.

The ONS argues that AI exposes weaknesses in current methods because cost-based estimates do not capture productivity gains in producing software or R&D. It also says existing approaches to measuring in-house software assume the occupations involved are stable over time, even as AI broadens the range of workers contributing to development.

The agency says signs of AI are already visible in the latest GDP figures. In the three months to August, UK GDP rises 1.8% from a year earlier, with information and communication technology accounting for a quarter of growth; business investment is up 5% on the year, and digital infrastructure investment reaches £11 billion a year in 2024 and 2025.

The ONS is also developing a thematic account covering 5,800 UK-registered companies with some AI specialism, with the next update planned for March. It says this work is intended to estimate the value of AI services in the UK and later support price indices that can better measure real activity and quality change.

Adoption widens as trust and valuation challenges grow

The ONS says business use of AI has broadly trebled over three years in its Business Insights and Conditions Survey. Excluding the smallest companies, more than a third of firms report using AI in their work, rising to more than half of large firms, although only 12% of users say they deploy it extensively and only 6% say AI has reduced headcount.

According to the survey evidence cited in the lecture, firms most often see administrative and clerical work as the area most affected, followed by creative and design roles and management. Around half of AI-using companies rely on commercial software, a third use freely available tools, and one in seven are building bespoke applications.

Household use is also spreading. The ONS says seven in 10 people have used AI over the last year, four in 10 use it in work or education, and more than a quarter use AI assistants at home or for hobbies, while one in five use AI to support wellbeing and one in seven use it for financial advice.

At the same time, the agency says trust is becoming a bigger constraint. Around 40% of respondents now see greater risks than benefits from AI, against 13% who see greater benefits than risks, with fake information, misuse of personal data and cyber crime the leading concerns.

Benford says national statisticians need a three-part response: refine thematic accounts for AI producers, update guidance on measuring new intangible assets under SNA 2025, and be clearer about the limits of current systems while new methods are developed. He argues that official statistics are likely to be under-recording intangible investment at present, particularly where AI improves quality or productivity without being fully visible in cost-based measures.

AI-driven competitive pressure on companies was the focus of our earlier coverage, highlighting how rising automation and data tools are making “average” performance less sustainable. That piece explained that firms increasingly need to rethink investment priorities, workforce skills, and decision-making processes to stay relevant, while AI adopters can lift productivity and strengthen market position.

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