Gold price eases near $5,100 as oil spike fuels inflation worries

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Gold price eases near

Highlights

Spot gold traded near $5,090, while April futures held around $5,100.
Oil crude surged toward $119, lifting inflation concerns across global markets.
The February U.S. payrolls report showed a drop of 92,000 jobs, while unemployment held at 4.4 percent.

Gold started the week under pressure after failing to build on Friday’s bounce. Price action around $5,100 suggests buyers are still active, but not aggressive enough yet to turn the chart higher in a clean way.

The first support zone now sits around $5,050, with $5,000 back in view if selling picks up. On the upside, the market likely needs to reclaim the $5,100 to $5,200 area with more conviction before the short-term picture starts to look constructive again. This still looks like a market searching for balance, not one in full control of direction.

Gold price dynamics (January - February 2026). Source: TradingView.

Oil changes the mood for bullion

The main pressure point on Monday came from energy. Oil prices surged after the conflict in the Middle East intensified, driving Brent close to $119.50 and forcing investors to rethink how quickly inflation might cool from here.

That shift mattered for gold because it pushed the dollar higher and made traders less comfortable with the idea of easier policy in the near term. In a calmer macro setting, geopolitical tension would usually be a cleaner support for bullion, but this time the inflation shock from oil is competing with that safe-haven bid.

The labor backdrop remains part of the story as well. February payrolls fell by 92,000 and the unemployment rate held at 4.4 percent, which on its own might have helped gold more, but that softer jobs signal was partly overshadowed by fresh concern that higher energy costs could keep price pressures uncomfortable into this week’s CPI release and the March 17 to 18 Fed meeting.

What could shape the next move

If gold continues to hold the $5,050 area and this week’s inflation data do not put fresh pressure on yields, the market could start to stabilize and work back toward $5,100 and then $5,200. That would likely need the dollar to soften and Treasury yields to stop moving higher.

If oil remains elevated and investors keep adjusting to a more difficult inflation picture, gold may have trouble sustaining any rebound even with geopolitical risk still in play. In that environment, another move toward $5,000 would be well within view, especially if the dollar stays firm around upcoming U.S. data.

The gold market still looks like a tug-of-war. Conflict headlines keep putting a floor under gold, while elevated yields make it harder for rallies to extend without new fuel.

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