Paul Tudor Jones backs bitcoin as inflation hedge, warns U.S. stocks face weak returns

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Dan Blystone

28.04.2026

Paul Tudor Jones backs bitcoin as inflation hedge, warns U.S. stocks face weak returns — Jones backs bitcoin hedge

With inflation protection and long-term asset valuations back in focus, billionaire investor Paul Tudor Jones says bitcoin offers a stronger hedge than gold because of its fixed supply. He also warns that elevated U.S. equity valuations and rising share supply could make it difficult for investors to generate returns from stocks over the next decade.

Highlights

Paul Tudor Jones calls bitcoin 'unequivocally the best inflation hedge' due to its capped supply and outperformance during heavy monetary stimulus periods.
Jones warns that current U.S. stock market valuations imply negative 10-year forward returns for the S&P 500 and historically align with prior downturn peaks.
He cites a surge in IPOs like SpaceX and OpenAI, declining buybacks, and near-record market cap-to-GDP levels as pressure points that could trigger a negative economic feedback loop if equities correct.

Bitcoin thesis and valuation warning

As reported by Invest Like the Best podcast, Jones says bitcoin is "unequivocally the best inflation hedge" and argues its capped issuance gives it an advantage over gold, whose supply keeps expanding each year.

He links that view to periods of heavy monetary and fiscal stimulus, including the market shock after the March 2020 pandemic crash, when he says inflation trades gained momentum as central banks added liquidity. In that environment, bitcoin stood out to him as the most compelling opportunity.

Jones takes a much more cautious stance on equities. He says current stock market valuations historically point to poor future returns and adds that buying the S&P 500 at current levels implies negative 10-year forward returns.

Pressure points for U.S. markets

Jones says a coming wave of initial public offerings, including companies such as SpaceX and artificial intelligence groups like OpenAI and Anthropic, could add to equity supply at the same time that share buybacks decline, creating further pressure on stock prices.

While he stops short of calling the market a full bubble, he says the ratio of U.S. stock market capitalization to GDP remains near extreme levels associated with earlier downturns, including the dot-com era. He cites past peaks in 1929, 1987 and 2000, and says the current reading shows the market is still heavily leveraged to equities.

Jones adds that a major stock market correction could spill into the wider economy, hurting capital gains tax receipts, widening the government budget deficit and unsettling the bond market. He describes the setup as a troubling negative feedback loop if asset prices fall sharply.

Our earlier update on bitcoin’s struggle to break above the $80,000 level highlighted a cooling tone in digital assets, with softer U.S. demand signals and declining derivatives activity pointing to reduced risk appetite. We noted that negative funding rates and more expensive downside protection suggested institutional hedging, while macro headwinds such as a stronger dollar and elevated oil prices added to the defensive setup across broader markets.

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