Nvidia stock slides as oversold setup limits downside momentum

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Nvidia slides 2.01% today after earnings

Highlights

Nvidia delivered record quarterly revenue of $81.6 billion, up 85% year over year, fueled by robust demand and execution.
Shareholder returns surged as the board authorized $80 billion in buybacks and a substantial quarterly dividend hike, with $20 billion returned in Q1.
Price action remains under short-term selling pressure, but technical signals imply high probability of sideways-to-upward movement within a $215.30–$221.03 range next week.

Profit growth and buybacks as price faces persistent selling pressure

Nvidia released its fiscal first quarter 2027 results, reporting a record $81.6 billion in revenue, an 85% increase year over year, reflecting strong demand and operational execution. Net income reached $58.3 billion and adjusted earnings per share rose 140%, highlighting significant growth in profitability. The board authorized an additional $80 billion in share buybacks and approved a major increase to the quarterly dividend, enabling $20 billion in capital to be returned to shareholders during the quarter, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Resistance near Kijun line amid mixed momentum and oversold signals

On the technical front, NVDA is trading just above the SMA-20 at $214.71 and well above the SMA-50 ($196.79) and SMA-200 ($187.03), showcasing clear support from medium- and long-term trends. The Ichimoku Kijun line at $215.64 is acting as immediate resistance. Daily MACD readings indicate strong upward momentum supported by ADX in buy territory, yet Stoch RSI and CCI have entered oversold conditions, and the BBP flags increased seller activity. The RSI remains neutral-to-bullish. Price is currently near the session’s lowest tick following a gap down at the open, with intraday volatility assessed as moderate.

Sideways trend likely as resistance and support levels converge

For the coming week, NVDA is expected to remain within a typical volatility band between $215.30 and $221.03. The baseline scenario is for sideways trade within this established range. If the price breaks decisively above $215.64, a test toward the $221 resistance zone is probable, while a drop below $214.71 could trigger additional short-term profit taking. Overall, the probability of an upward move is assessed above 80% based on current technical and market context.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees Nvidia’s financial performance as strong but pricing action remains cautious. He notes that technical indicators offer support from longer trends, while the latest earnings and capital return measures have not sparked a rally. The base case is for sideways trading as sellers continue to apply pressure. "I prefer to wait for a clear break above $215.64 before taking a position—until then, base case remains cautious and defensive."

Previously it was reported that Nvidia’s outlook remained favorable despite challenges from export restrictions and loss of access to the Chinese AI chip market. The company’s latest record results and robust capital return program reinforce this view, with a break above immediate resistance at $215.64 likely to signal renewed upward momentum in the near term.

Source of Data: NVDA Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.