Polymarket faces backlash over Strategy Bitcoin bet ruling

Traders Union
All News
Crypto News
Polymarket faces backlash

Highlights

Strategy sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31 but disclosed the sale on June 1.
Polymarket’s disputed market resolved toward “No” because confirmation came after the deadline.
Users say on-chain Coinbase transfers before May 31 should have counted as evidence.

Strategy sale sets off dispute

Strategy disclosed on June 1 that it sold 32 Bitcoin between May 26 and May 31 for about $2.5 million, at an average price of $77,135 per coin. The company said proceeds from the sale would help fund distributions on its preferred stock, while it still held 843,706 Bitcoin as of May 31.

According to CoinDesk, the filing created a timing problem for Polymarket. The relevant market asked whether Strategy would sell any Bitcoin by 11:59 p.m. ET on May 31. Polymarket’s own rules listed information from MSTR and on-chain data as primary resolution sources, with credible reporting also allowed.

Users say on-chain transfers were ignored

Users argued that the sale should count because Bitcoin transfers to Coinbase Prime were visible on May 29 and May 30, before the deadline, and were later supported by Strategy’s June 1 filing. Lookonchain had flagged a 411.48 Bitcoin transfer to Coinbase Prime before the disclosure, sparking speculation that Strategy could be preparing to sell.

But because Strategy confirmed the transaction only on June 1, after the market deadline, the proposed resolution was “No.” Polymarket’s page showed the May 31 outcome under review, with “Outcome proposed: No” and “Disputed” status. The market had generated more than $118 million in volume, with Polymarket’s live page later showing even higher activity across the broader event.

The decision triggered anger among YES bettors. One trader reportedly placed $527,000 on YES and lost the entire position after the market moved toward a “No” resolution. Users accused Polymarket of unfairly benefiting from fees while participants lost hundreds of thousands of dollars on a market whose outcome depended on a narrow interpretation of timing.

Prediction Markets Face a Credibility Test

The dispute matters because prediction markets rely on trust in clear and consistent resolution rules. When a market depends on both event timing and public disclosure timing, traders can face large losses even when later filings appear to confirm that the underlying event occurred before the deadline.

For Polymarket, the case is bigger than one Strategy bet. A market with more than $118 million in volume has turned into a public test of whether the platform can handle ambiguous corporate events without appearing to favor technicalities over evidence.

In an earlier report, we noted that Strive buys 2,500 BTC as Bitcoin falls below $70,000 after the Strategy sale.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.