U.S. critical minerals pricing plan faces G7 resistance, industry split

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U.S. minerals pricing faces G7 pushback

Highlights

G7 members pushed back against U.S. critical minerals pricing plan, expressing concerns over premiums, subsidies, governance and Pentagon AI-based pricing system.
Canada and France advocate a G7-led trading bloc while Washington shifts toward bilateral agreements, with first proposals targeting Japan and the EU before end of June.
Industry submissions reveal sharp divisions on G7 pricing bloc scope, as proposed first agreements may cover 5–10 minerals impacted by Chinese export restrictions.

G7 talks test U.S. minerals pricing strategy

As reported by Reuters, the proposal first outlined by U.S. Vice President JD Vance in February is intended to help Western countries reduce reliance on China, which dominates many critical minerals markets and effectively sets global prices through its scale of production. The envisioned bloc would examine price supports, subsidies, guaranteed purchases and market standards, with adjustable tariffs potentially used to enforce pricing integrity.

Private negotiations since Vance's announcement are exposing significant doubts among G7 partners. Three sources tell Reuters that members have pushed back against U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and are cooling on a model that would rely on a Pentagon AI system to help determine mineral prices.

European officials say the main concerns include who would pay any premium for minerals, how far subsidies should extend through the supply chain and how governance would work. The Trump administration is also resisting a French proposal for a permanent administrative secretariat within the International Energy Agency or OECD to track G7 critical minerals initiatives as presidencies rotate.

Canada and France want a G7-led trading bloc, while Washington is favoring faster bilateral deals that could later be expanded. That approach signals a shift from the broader multilateral framework Vance described earlier this year.

Industry divisions shape market outlook

The policy debate is also dividing the U.S. mining industry. Reuters reviewed more than 230 public submissions to Greer's office from miners, refiners and customers, showing disagreement over what allies should be asked to support as Washington tries to redesign how minerals are bought and sold.

Washington aims to present proposals for binding bilateral agreements to Japan and the European Union before the end of June, according to two sources familiar with the matter. The first agreement could cover five to 10 minerals, including heavy rare earths, antimony, graphite and tungsten, all of which are affected by Chinese export bans or restrictions.

The administration wants to use the U.S. Department of Defense's Open Price Exploration for National Security, or OPEN, program to estimate metal prices after accounting for labor, processing and other costs while excluding alleged Chinese market manipulation. European allies remain opposed so far to using an AI pricing system developed by Washington, with one source citing concerns over U.S. influence on bloc pricing.

Ashley Zumwalt-Forbes, a minerals investor who previously oversaw the U.S. Department of Energy's batteries and critical minerals portfolio under former President Joe Biden, says the effort is difficult to execute. Analysts and consultants tell Reuters that whatever form the bloc eventually takes could shape critical minerals markets for years.

Our earlier coverage of the G7 summit in Evian-les-Bains explained how France adjusted the schedule to secure President Donald Trump’s full participation, including a Versailles dinner, amid fears he could leave early. We noted that the Iran conflict and its spillover into energy prices and broader economic risk were expected to dominate the talks and shape the summit’s outcomes.

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