What triggered US Dollar vs Indian Rupee price's latest move lower

Traders Union
All News
Financial News
Usd/inr slips 0.49% today

Highlights

The Reserve Bank of India was a net seller of USD 8.94 billion in April amid persistent rupee pressure from geopolitical risks and foreign outflows.
By June 2026, improved capital inflows, reduced geopolitical risk, and softer crude prices had stabilized the rupee, though underlying selling pressure persisted.
USD/INR trades below short- and medium-term averages, with key resistance at ₹94.8809 and a five-day expected range of ₹93.9976–₹94.9422, as mixed signals suggest sideways to cautious bearish momentum.

Rupee recovers as capital inflows reduce risk despite ongoing selling

According to the Reserve Bank of India's monthly bulletin, the central bank was a net seller of USD 8.944 billion in the spot forex market in April, as the rupee faced lingering challenges from geopolitical tensions and sustained outflows by foreign portfolio investors. On a gross basis, the RBI purchased USD 16.225 billion and sold USD 25.169 billion during the month. The bulletin further noted that by June 2026, the rupee's position improved with higher capital inflows, reduced geopolitical risks, and softer crude oil prices, though price action has remained under broader selling pressure.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the USD/INR pair under clear selling pressure in the short and medium term. He notes that the price action below both the 20- and 50-day moving averages signals weak momentum, despite some technical support from the long-term bullish trend. The RBI’s heavy dollar sales highlight the rupee's vulnerability amid ongoing geopolitical and outflow risks. Neutral oscillator readings and a bearish MACD further reinforce market indecision. Kharitonov concludes, "The latest price action and mixed signals suggest limited upside for now — downside risks remain dominant until stronger support emerges."

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, emphasizes the underlying positive structural setup for USD/INR. He highlights constructive macro factors such as improved capital inflows, easing geopolitical risks, and softer crude oil prices as supportive for the rupee ahead. Karapetjanc remains confident about further upside potential, given the intact long-term bullish pattern. He believes the forecasted 78% chance of an upward move confirms opportunity for those seeking trend continuation. As Karapetjanc points out, "The bullish structure remains intact — investors should stay alert for renewed upward momentum above ₹94.8809."

Short-term selling prevails as mixed momentum meets technical support

USD/INR is trading below the 20-day and 50-day moving averages at ₹95.0279 and ₹95.2269, and above its 200-day moving average at ₹92.3553. This configuration indicates short- and medium-term pressure from sellers, but a prevailing bullish structure in the long term, with the nearest resistance at ₹94.8809 and support at ₹94.3619. Momentum readings show the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) at -0.268 with a Sell signal, while Average Directional Index (ADX) at 15.1728 suggests a weak trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands neutral at 49.2273 with a Sell outlook, and Commodity Channel Index (CCI) at -25.0957 also signals neutral, with no clear overbought or oversold conditions. Bull/Bear Power (BBP) at 0.442 indicates buyers dominate intraday momentum, supported by a Strong Buy signal, yet this diverges from the overall neutral to bearish tone of other momentum indicators. The pair last traded at ₹94.4699, slipping 0.49% for the session after a downside gap of about 0.07%. Price is near day lows with intraday volatility at 0.55%. This suggests pressure after the open, with mixed momentum and oscillators pointing to a cautious intraday stance.

Previously it was reported that ongoing RBI intervention and sustained selling momentum heightened the risk of further rupee strength against the US dollar. The latest data on significant RBI dollar sales and mixed momentum signals reinforce the case for a cautious outlook, with traders advised to monitor for a potential break above ₹94.8809 or below ₹94.3619 as triggers for the next directional move.

Source of Data: USD Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.