WTI remains supported near recent highs as renewed tensions in the Middle East continue to sustain the geopolitical risk premium. Concerns about potential disruptions to regional crude flows have outweighed the bearish impact of weaker global demand expectations, allowing oil prices to remain resilient.
At the same time, investors welcomed softer U.S. inflation data, which eased expectations for further Federal Reserve tightening and improved the broader outlook for risk assets, including commodities.
OPEC+ and demand outlook provide a mixed fundamental backdrop
The longer-term fundamental picture remains balanced. OPEC+ confirmed another gradual increase in production for August while reiterating that future output adjustments will remain flexible depending on market conditions. At the same time, OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast, highlighting concerns about slower economic activity, while the IEA continues to expect inventories to rebuild later this year as supply recovers. These factors should help limit upside potential if geopolitical risks begin to ease.
Technical recovery remains intact
The hourly chart shows WTI maintaining its recovery after rebounding sharply from the lows near $70. Prices continue to trade above the short, medium, and long-term moving averages, confirming that bullish momentum remains in place despite recent consolidation around the $80 area. However, upside progress has slowed after the latest rally, suggesting that buyers may require a fresh fundamental catalyst before attempting another move higher. As long as WTI remains above nearby support, the short-term technical outlook stays constructive.
Markets await fresh inventory data and macro releases
Attention now turns to the upcoming EIA inventory report, U.S. retail sales, and additional Federal Reserve communication. Traders will also continue monitoring developments in the Middle East because any escalation could quickly tighten supply expectations and support oil prices. Conversely, signs of improving crude flows or weaker demand indicators could encourage profit-taking after the recent advance.
Despite the current rebound, the overall outlook for WTI remains bearish, as I noted in the article WTI extends rally as Strait of Hormuz risks lift oil prices.
Latest WTI News
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