Coinbase stock forecast: Breakout attempt at $171.64 resistance amid fresh onboarding news

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Coinbase jumps 3.74% as outlook improves

Highlights

Coinbase now accepts Chinese national IDs for customer verification, significantly expanding its access to the mainland China crypto market.
Chief Legal Officer Paul Grewal will depart after July 2026, injecting uncertainty into Coinbase’s future regulatory approach.
COIN/USD displays strong short-term momentum with price consolidating in a $163.6–$171.64 range and indicators warning of overbought conditions.

Regulatory uncertainty grows as China access expands

Coinbase Global has started accepting Chinese national IDs for customer verification, a move that allows more users from mainland China to register on its platform and expands its total addressable market, according to Simplywall. This broader accessibility could drive higher future engagement and transaction activity, tapping into significant demand from one of the world's largest pools of potential Crypto users. Separately, the company announced that Paul Grewal, its Chief Legal Officer and Secretary, will step down at the end of July 2026, a transition that introduces uncertainty regarding Coinbase's regulatory and compliance strategy as reported by Finance Yahoo.

Stretched momentum flags reversal risk amid buyer dominance

On the hourly chart, COIN/USD trades above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, while remaining below the 200-period moving average on the daily timeframe. The Ichimoku Kijun at $161 provides immediate support. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 64.32 and is in buy territory, but both the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and Stochastic RSI are showing overbought readings, highlighting stretched intraday conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator signals a buy and is reinforced by a supportive Awesome Oscillator. However, the Average Directional Index (ADX) remains neutral, indicating that trend conviction is not yet fully established. Bull/Bear Power is also overbought, which points to dominant buyer activity but raises the risk of a short-term reversal due to momentum divergence.

Upside bias persists barring a break below near-term support

Looking ahead to the next several sessions, the projected trading range spans from $163.6 to $171.64. There is a 77% probability of further upside, with downward corrections less likely in the immediate term. The baseline scenario anticipates a period of consolidation within the projected band. In a bullish breakout, COIN could move above resistance and retest the higher end of the volatility band, while a decisive drop below $161 support would open the possibility of a sharper move to lower levels.

Viktoras Karapetjanc, expert at Traders Union, sees Coinbase’s move to accept Chinese national IDs as a major step for international user growth. He believes this regulatory expansion meaningfully expands the company’s addressable market and supports bullish sentiment. Grewal’s planned departure adds some uncertainty, but does not outweigh fundamentals for now. Technically, price remains constructive above key supports, with 77% odds of further upside in the near term. "International expansion and strong price dynamics continue to favor a positive outlook for Coinbase in this environment."

Previously it was reported that Coinbase emphasized its regulatory certifications and the risks associated with certain complex trading products. The latest developments, including expanding access to Chinese users and upcoming changes in legal leadership, introduce new strategic and regulatory variables that could drive both near-term engagement and volatility—making $161 a crucial support level to watch as market dynamics evolve.

Source of Data: COIN Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

The information is based on forecasts and does not constitute investment advice or a guarantee of future results. Market conditions may change. See our Disclaimer and Editorial Integrity for details.