Nasdaq Composite stalls at 21,710 ahead of NFP report as resistance caps upside

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Sholanke Dele

05.09.2025

Nasdaq Composite stalls at 21,710 ahead of NFP report as resistance caps upside — Nasdaq holds gains amid payrolls report

The Nasdaq Composite Index extended its advance in early September, reflecting investor optimism ahead of Friday’s critical U.S. payrolls report. On Thursday, the index added nearly 1%, rising 207 points before stalling at the 21,710 level.

This resistance has proved decisive in recent weeks, repeatedly halting further progress towards the all-time high of 21,800. The latest close at 21,710 marked the third failed bullish attempt since August, which has prevented the Nasdaq composite from charting new records.

- Nasdaq stalls at 21,710 ceiling as payrolls outcome shapes rate cut outlook.

- Payroll data seen pivotal for Fed timing as traders weigh resistance.

- Nasdaq faces repeated rejection below record highs despite early September strength.

The significance of 21,710 lies in its repeated role as a ceiling, capping rallies and slowing bullish momentum. It is positioned just below the record close of 21,767, making it a critical marker in traders’ eyes. Each time the Nasdaq index has reached this point since mid-August, selling pressure has emerged, keeping a lid on further gains. The repeated tests suggest investors are awaiting stronger catalysts to push decisively higher.

Nasdaq price dynamic (July - Sept 2025). Source: Tradingview

The most immediate catalyst is today’s nonfarm payrolls report. Investor sentiment is buoyant, reflecting expectations that weaker labour market figures will strengthen the Federal Reserve’s case for rate cuts. A softer reading would echo last month’s “shocker” payrolls print, which accelerated speculation that monetary policy would need to ease quickly. Fed Chair Jerome Powell already signalled at Jackson Hole that a cut on September 17 was likely unless data proved otherwise, adding weight to the payrolls report’s outcome.

NFP data to determine whether Fed cut on September 17 gains traction

The stakes are high because the report’s direction will determine whether the 21,710 barrier holds or breaks. Should the “Actual” reading come in above forecast, the Fed could be pressured to delay cuts, cooling risk appetite and reinforcing the resistance ceiling. In that case, equities may pull back, leaving Nasdaq unable to extend beyond its capped zone. Conversely, if the payrolls result falls short of expectations, conviction for multiple cuts this year will build, likely fuelling fresh buying. Such a backdrop could be enough to break through 21,710, open the path to 21,767, and ultimately propel the index to new highs beyond 21,800.

The timing is particularly notable given the seasonal tendency for September weakness. Hence, a break above resistance in the first week would mark an important show of strength, challenging historical patterns and reinforcing the narrative that monetary policy rather than seasonality is driving momentum.

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