S&P 500 holds near 6,512 as investors await Fed policy and AI earnings boost

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S&P 500 holds 6,512 support

Highlights

- S&P 500 holds 6,512 with support from strong technical structure.

- Fed inflation data this week to guide policy expectations.

- Oracle surges 28% as AI demand fuels tech-led equity momentum.

On the daily chart, the S&P 500 remains comfortably within a rising channel, with the 20-day EMA at 6,446 and 50-day EMA at 6,337 reinforcing immediate support. Deeper cushions rest at the 100-day EMA of 6,179 and 200-day EMA of 5,986.

S&P 500 price dynamics (Source: TradingView)

The RSI, now at 61, indicates a bullish trend without signaling overextension. Upside targets are clear: a channel top around 6,600–6,650 represents the next milestone if momentum persists. On the flip side, failure to hold above 6,400 would shift focus back toward 6,180. This positioning highlights steady momentum that is not overheated, leaving space for fresh catalysts to drive another leg higher.

Inflation data set to guide Fed

Macroeconomic attention is firmly on inflation prints this week, with the Producer Price Index due today and the Consumer Price Index tomorrow. After weaker labor data, markets are almost fully pricing in a rate cut at next week’s Fed meeting. The debate now rests on whether the cut will be 25 basis points or 50.

A softer inflation read would bolster the case for more aggressive easing, reinforcing bullish equity sentiment. A stronger print, however, could dampen expectations and pressure the index’s support structure, triggering volatility ahead of the Fed’s decision.

Corporate earnings momentum lifts sentiment

Corporate results are adding to the constructive backdrop. Oracle reported a surge in after-hours trading, climbing 28% on the back of strong demand for AI-powered cloud services. Revenue from its multicloud database products hosted by Amazon, Google, and Microsoft rose an extraordinary 1,529%. This result reinforces the theme of AI-driven infrastructure spending as a core engine of growth, lifting not only Oracle but also sentiment across the broader S&P 500.

The Nasdaq’s fresh record and the Dow’s 0.43% rise underscore how strength is not confined to mega-cap tech, but supported across sectors.S&P 500 outlook. The S&P 500 remains firmly positioned for further upside if dovish monetary policy expectations align with ongoing earnings momentum. A breakout beyond 6,600 would confirm bullish continuation, while holding above 6,400 maintains the broader uptrend.

As discussed in our earlier analyses, AI-linked earnings and monetary easing remain the dominant dual drivers for U.S. equities. With inflation data set to provide clarity in the days ahead, volatility is likely, but the structural uptrend continues to favor higher highs into the fourth quarter.

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