Nvidia stock holds at $187 as Meta expands in-house AI chip development

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Highlights

- Nvidia traded near $187 following Meta’s acquisition of AI chip startup Rivos.

- Meta’s push into custom silicon signals potential long-term competitive pressure.

- The company still relies heavily on Nvidia infrastructure, including a $14.2 billion deal with CoreWeave.

Support for Nvidia is developing in the $170–$175 range, an area that acted as resistance in August and is now acting as a short-term floor. A break below $170 would expose the stock to further declines toward the $150–$160 zone, where the 100-day moving average may offer structural support. On the upside, the $200–$210 area remains the key resistance zone, as Nvidia previously failed to hold above $200 despite strong fundamentals and bullish sentiment.

Moving averages point to a cooling but intact uptrend. Nvidia is trading above its 50-Day Moving Average, suggesting buyers are still in control in the medium term. However, momentum indicators such as RSI are declining from overbought levels and now hover near 55—still above neutral but signaling a loss of bullish intensity. The MACD has flattened, and volume on the most recent down days has exceeded that of up sessions, suggesting profit-taking is underway. Technically, the stock remains in an uptrend, but the short-term picture has shifted to neutral with a downside bias unless $200 is reclaimed decisively.

Nvidia stock price dynamics (August 2025 - October 2025). Source: TradingView

Recent price action also shows narrowing daily ranges, indicating reduced volatility and indecision among market participants. This type of contraction often precedes a directional breakout, making the current zone around $185 technically significant. Options markets are also reflecting this uncertainty, with implied volatility rising modestly, suggesting traders are positioning for a potential move. If earnings or macro data surprise to the upside, a breakout could be swift; conversely, any disappointment may trigger a sharper unwind. Until then, Nvidia appears to be coiling within a consolidation pattern, with $180–$190 acting as a short-term pivot band. Traders are likely to focus on volume confirmation and momentum shifts as signals for the next leg.

Meta’s AI chip deal pressures Nvidia

Nvidia briefly touched a record $4.5 trillion market valuation earlier this week, but attention quickly shifted to news that Meta is acquiring AI chip startup Rivos. The move underscores Meta’s strategic push to reduce its reliance on Nvidia hardware by strengthening its in-house silicon capabilities. The acquisition is part of the MTIA (Meta Training and Inference Accelerator) initiative, developed with Broadcom, which aims to optimize performance and efficiency in Meta’s data centers. By integrating Rivos’ expertise in AI system design, Meta is accelerating efforts to internalize more of its AI infrastructure stack.

While this development signals long-term strategic diversification, Nvidia remains central to current AI buildouts. Just last week, Meta signed a $14.2 billion deal with CoreWeave, a cloud provider offering Nvidia-powered compute capacity, reflecting continued dependence on Nvidia’s ecosystem. This dual-track approach—developing custom silicon while maintaining large-scale investments in Nvidia platforms—is becoming common among hyperscalers. Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are all exploring in-house chip architectures while still relying heavily on Nvidia hardware for near-term AI workloads.

Still, the optics of Meta moving to vertically integrate key parts of its AI stack are noteworthy. The Rivos acquisition adds to growing concerns that Nvidia’s largest customers are gradually positioning themselves to reduce external dependency over time. Although Nvidia’s technological lead and software ecosystem remain strong, moves like this reinforce investor awareness of future margin and market share risks. As the AI arms race matures, Nvidia’s dominance is increasingly being challenged not by competitors alone—but by its own clients.

Consolidation likely before next move

Looking ahead, Nvidia is expected to trade in a broad consolidation band between $170 and $200 over the next several weeks. This range reflects a tug-of-war between bulls who view the stock as a long-term AI leader and bears who see overvaluation risk. In the base-case scenario, the stock stabilizes above $175 and attempts to build a new base. A break above $200 with strong volume could trigger a renewed leg higher, targeting $220–$230 in the short term.

In a bullish scenario, Nvidia benefits from strong earnings, renewed institutional inflows, or favorable macro conditions (such as easing interest rate pressures). That would likely push the stock to fresh all-time highs. Conversely, in a bearish case, weaker-than-expected guidance, tightening liquidity, or regulatory headwinds could drive a breakdown below $170, with downside targets near $150–$160.

Nvidia’s market cap surged past $4.5 trillion following news of an expanded partnership with OpenAI, including billions in future GPU deployments. As the primary supplier for OpenAI’s $500 billion “Stargate” initiative, Nvidia stands to secure up to $100 billion in orders, reinforcing its dominance in the AI hardware cycle.

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