Strong technical support keeps TotalEnergies steady, but overbought signals flash warning

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TotalEnergies rises 0.93% today

Highlights

TotalEnergies SE (TTE) closed at $53.14, trading above its MA-20 and MA-50 but below long-term resistance at the MA-200 ($53.96).
TTE executed a $97.84 million share repurchase and divested GreenFlex to Oteis, tightening focus ahead of Q3 2025 earnings on October 30, 2025.
Technical signals show short-term hesitation as mixed momentum indicators and an overbought Stoch RSI limit probability of a price increase to less than 20% over five sessions.

Share repurchase and affiliate divestment as earnings anticipation builds

TotalEnergies will release its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 30, 2025, an event the market is watching for insights on the group’s earnings and outlook. The company also executed a sizeable share repurchase program totaling approximately $97.84 million, and divested its GreenFlex affiliate to Oteis to refine its focus on core operations.

Mixed technical signals as price strength faces momentum divergence

Momentum signals are mixed, as the daily MACD shows strong selling pressure, while the ADX remains neutral and weak. RSI and CCI are in bullish territory but close to overbought, and the Stoch RSI confirms overbought conditions. Bull/Bear Power is neutral, hinting at balanced intraday dynamics. There is a mild bullish gap at the open, with current price slightly below today’s high, marking a moderate volatility session. The overall tone shows strength toward highs, but some oscillators indicate divergence, highlighting short-term caution despite the daily upward move of 0.93%.

Limited upside with downside risk amid low probability of gains

For the next five sessions, the expected price range is $52.63 to $53.99. The probability of a price increase is very low (less than 20%), making a decline more likely. Baseline scenario: the price holds between $52.63 and $53.99, with choppy trading. Bullish scenario: a clear break above $53.96 could open room for further gains. Bearish scenario: loss of support below $52.61 would expose the price to a deeper pullback, reflecting the currently cautious medium-term outlook.

Anton Kharitonov, expert at Traders Union, sees the short- and medium-term technical picture for TotalEnergies SE as constrained by persistent long-term resistance at the $53.96 level, despite support from recent bullish momentum. He notes that while corporate moves like the share repurchase and divestiture may refocus investor sentiment, mixed momentum signals and an overbought setup warrant skepticism. The probability of a price increase remains low and risks of a pullback persist given both indicator divergence and event-driven uncertainty. "Base case remains range-bound between $52.63 and $53.99; unless $53.96 is reclaimed, I remain cautious and defensive on upside potential."

Previously it was noted that downside bias prevails as breakout probabilities remain low, as discussed in downside bias prevails as breakout probabilities remain low. The article also highlighted that mixed momentum and conflicting signals as support and resistance converge were evident for TTE.

Source of Data: TTE Price Analysis by TU

The analysis is based on a proprietary model combining technical, on-chain, and expert data. Not investment advice. See methodology

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