Iran-linked vessels raise risks for Gulf subsea cable infrastructure

Traders Union
All News
Geopolitics & Trade
Iran-linked Gulf subsea cable risks

Highlights

Windward detects at least four Iran-linked vessels taking unusual routes and loitering above key subsea cables in the Gulf of Oman in October, raising sabotage concerns.
Any attack on Gulf subsea cables like 2Africa, Fibre in Gulf, and Sea-Me-We 6 would threaten digital connectivity and economic diversification for countries including Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar.
Iranian leaders explicitly threaten undersea digital infrastructure in the Strait of Hormuz, while the U.S. reinforces its military presence in response to escalating regional risks.

Ship movements heighten cable security concerns

As first reported by the Financial Times, maritime analytics company Windward says at least four vessels have been observed taking unusual routes and lingering over subsea telecoms cables in the Gulf of Oman after Tehran issues threats against digital infrastructure. Three of the vessels are tankers under U.S. sanctions, while the fourth is a small Iranian fishing craft that loiters above the Europe India Gateway and Transworld cables between October 21 and 26, according to Windward data.

Windward says the vessels sail normally until reaching specific cable corridors, where they then slow, loop, turn back, loiter or switch off tracking signals. The company says that pattern fits the profile of mapping cable routes or potentially placing charges or mines while operating dark.

The tankers are observed slowing above cables including 2Africa, which is due to connect several Gulf countries through the Red Sea and down Africa's east coast, and Falcon, which links Gulf countries with India and Africa. Two of the tankers are empty, and all of them have switched off tracking data at various points over the past month.

Celestial Sea, one of the sanctioned tankers, drifts in a loop for just over four hours around the 2Africa cable on October 14 before turning off its signalling system on October 15 between 2Africa and Bay of Bengal Gateway. Four days later it makes a U-turn above the cable before anchoring off Shinas.

Another tanker loiters at less than one knot for 10 days in Iranian waters near the Europe India Gateway, Transworld, Bay of Bengal Gateway and SeaMeWe-4 cables in mid-October. Windward says it repeatedly turns off its signalling system, including for more than 33 hours on October 17, while several other tankers are also seen drifting over cable routes earlier in October.

Regional connectivity and economic exposure

Any attack on cables in the area would have major implications for Gulf economies that rely on uninterrupted data traffic. TeleGeography data shows six cables run through the Strait of Hormuz and three more, Fibre in Gulf, Sea-Me-We 6 and 2Africa, are under construction, with 2Africa the closest to completion.

Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain and Qatar are wholly dependent on cables running under the strait for internet connectivity. Masha Kotkin, a former U.S. state department official and fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, says AI, cloud computing, data centres and other digital activity in the Gulf depend on subsea fibre optic cables.

Kotkin says any damage would mean slower internet and financial transactions, while also disrupting communications networks, ecommerce and cloud computing. She adds that connectivity is central to Gulf efforts to diversify away from hydrocarbons and become a hub for digital business, and notes that regional threats have already halted construction on several cable projects.

Iranian officials have been explicit in recent weeks about possible retaliation against digital assets in the Strait of Hormuz. Hossein Mohebbi, spokesperson for Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps, says on October 19 that major undersea internet cables run through the strait and warns that new targets and weapons shall be unveiled, while other senior Iranian figures also threaten data centres, artificial intelligence facilities and internet cables.

The U.S. continues moving military assets into the region, including the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt travelling towards Singapore early on Wednesday, potentially adding to two carriers already in the Middle East. Analysts say the unusual ship manoeuvres could be coincidental, but they also underline Iran's ability to signal a capacity to damage undersea infrastructure if conflict escalates.

Our earlier article on shipping disruption through the Strait of Hormuz explained that prolonged uncertainty is already hitting global food supply chains by delaying fertilizer and fuel flows and pushing up operating costs for farmers. We noted that lower fertilizer use and more cautious planting decisions are weighing on harvests, with agricultural commodity prices rising and further increases expected, especially for import-dependent regions in Asia and Africa.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.