ASEAN highlights trade and AI integration as growth drivers

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ASEAN trade and AI growth

Highlights

Kristalina Georgieva highlights ASEAN's resilience amid global energy shocks, noting the region as a bright spot despite inflationary pressures and super El Niño threats.
Reducing nontariff barriers could lift ASEAN GDP by 4.3 percent and create 4 million jobs, with up to 2.5 percent gains from services trade reforms.
The new ASEAN Digital Economy Framework and rapid AI adoption position the region for stronger investment, trade, and productivity, though policymakers must address tax gaps and financial risks.

Regional growth agenda gains momentum

According to the International Monetary Fund, Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva tells the 49th ASEAN Summit in Manila that the global economy is being shaped by two opposing forces, a negative energy shock that restrains growth and a positive AI investment shock that lifts it.

She says both forces are inflationary and are prompting central banks to raise interest rates, with spillover effects across economies. Within that setting, she describes ASEAN as a bright spot, pointing to the region's resilience despite energy pressures and threats linked to super El Niño.

Georgieva also praises the new ASEAN Digital Economy Framework, saying it supports a broader strategy of regional cooperation at a time when the world is becoming more fragmented and more exposed to shocks. She argues that interdependence continues to shape policy, despite wider debate about the future of globalization.

Trade reforms and AI adoption shape outlook

On trade, Georgieva says ASEAN includes some of the world's most open economies and remains a strong supporter of rules-based commerce. She adds that reducing nontariff barriers could raise ASEAN's GDP by 4.3 percent over the long run, including up to 2.5 percent from services trade reforms alone, and could create 4 million jobs if accompanied by smart labor market policies.

She says the digital framework can help foster digital payments integration, which in turn supports greater intra-regional trade. Georgieva also says some ASEAN economies are at the forefront of an AI building boom, benefiting from stronger investment, trade and growth.

At the same time, she says all member states need to strengthen preparedness, manage risks to financial stability and jobs, and broaden access so AI can support medium-term productivity. She adds that ASEAN economies face different stages of development and debt burdens, while the region's 12 percent tax-to-GDP ratio remains below the 15 percent average in other parts of Asia, increasing the need for policy action and stronger institutions.

We have also discussed the broader context around ADB’s ASEAN funding pledge to back resilient rivers and digital-economy projects through 2030.

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