Yuriy Matso: Yield curve inversion in 2022 did not precede recession

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Yield curve inversion failed to predict recession

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Jose Antonio Gastelum

18.05.2026

Yuriy Matso: Yield curve inversion in 2022 did not precede recession — Yield curve inversion failed to predict recession

Yuriy Matso questions why the yield curve produced its first major false positive in 2022, noting that previous instances of yield curve inversions were typically followed by recessions.

Matso asks readers to consider possible reasons for the divergence in 2022, suggesting an interest in alternative explanations for recent economic trends.

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Matso recently highlighted that the Mars strategy recorded an 89 percent gain in 2026, congratulating subscribers for the result in a prior update. He also reported that the SystemTrader portfolio, launched in December 2025 with six strategies, returned 27 percent since inception, according to a separate article. These reports follow his latest questions on the predictive power of the yield curve.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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