Fed hike scenarios remain in focus before CPI, Claudia Sahm notes

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Andrey Mastykin

12.08.2026

Fed hike scenarios remain in focus before CPI, Claudia Sahm notes — Fed hike triggers eyed as CPI nears

Claudia Sahm raises the question of what conditions would prompt the Federal Reserve to consider a rate hike as new inflation data is set to be released.

She references her July analysis based on scenarios from the June FOMC minutes, describing them as the best proxy for the Fed's reaction function. Sahm observes that inflation news since then has been favorable, and she awaits to see if positive trends continue with the upcoming data.

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In a previous assessment, Claudia Sahm noted that most Federal Reserve officials were not prepared to support an interest rate hike at the upcoming meeting, based on their recent remarks (Claudia Sahm: Fed officials unlikely to support rate hike at upcoming meeting). She also relayed concerns that the Fed has kept rates steady despite persistent inflation pressures (Claudia Sahm: Fed keeps rates unchanged despite ongoing inflation concerns). These observations provide context for Sahm’s ongoing focus on the Fed’s response to new inflation data.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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