Payroll numbers decline with 66 percent chance of rate hike, Jared Dillian notes

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31.08.2026

Payroll numbers decline with 66 percent chance of rate hike, Jared Dillian notes — Payroll estimate drops as hike likely

Jared Dillian highlights recent weakness in payroll reports, noting that two consecutive releases have posted disappointing numbers. According to Dillian, the estimate for this week's payroll is 55K, and there is a 66 percent probability of a rate hike at the next policy meeting.

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Dillian has previously discussed his strategy of prioritizing profits from buybacks rather than commenting on bond market movements, as detailed in an earlier piece. He has also commented on gold positions, noting his surprise at another investor's relatively modest holdings compared to his own larger allocation in another article. These past comments provide additional context to his current focus on labor data and rate probabilities.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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