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Cullen Roche: Inflation is key driver of bond yields and Fed rate policy

Cullen Roche: Inflation is key driver of bond yields and Fed rate policy
Inflation guides bond yields and Fed

Cullen Roche argues that the bond market and the Federal Reserve are both engaged in predicting long-term economic trends. Roche explains that the bond market tries to forecast the path of the Fed's interest rate decisions, while the Fed sets rates by anticipating the long-term trajectory of inflation.

He suggests that inflation ultimately determines where bond yields should be set.

Roche has previously noted that predictions of a U.S. government bond crisis have circulated for decades, casting doubt on repeated warnings (/news/market-voices/show/3106302-us-bond-crisis-predictions/). In another analysis, he stated that extended periods of high inflation have a more severe impact on bond performance than recent market moves (/news/market-voices/show/3243769-inflation-bond-performance-impact/). These views frame Roche's perspective on the interplay between inflation and bond yields.

This material may contain third-party opinions, none of the data and information on this webpage constitutes investment advice according to our Disclaimer. While we adhere to strict Editorial Integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners.

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